Win 3, and it's a BCS game at least

[JG]

This hurts (a lot), but in the end, if we beat Baylor, Kansas, and aggy, we'll be in a BCS game. I can't come up with a scenario where we don't.

We'll drop to around 5 or so in the BCS. I'm guessing we fall behind Penn State, Alabama, OU, and TT, and maybe SC and Florida.

OU and TT play each other, and Alabama and Florida will ultimately play each other also.

I think that if OU beats TT, we jump back ahead of them (but not ahead of OU). That would clinch us a BCS game (though OU would beat us out for the Big 12 South by being up in the BCS ratings).

The only POSSIBLE scenario I can think of is TT losing to OU in like triple overtime, and beating Okie State by 40. But we'll just have to see.

[TEX72]

Agreed that if we win 3 we are most likely BCS. We are 11-1 at that point. The only glitch might be if Mizzou wins North and beats an 11-0 Tech in Big 12 Champ Game. Then Mizzou gets Fiesta and Tech probably gets a BCS Bowl over us.

[jg6544]

We'll drop to around 5 or so in the BCS. I'm guessing we fall behind Penn State, Alabama, OU, and TT, and maybe SC and Florida.

OU and TT play each other, and Alabama and Florida will ultimately play each other also.

I think that if OU beats TT, we jump back ahead of them (but not ahead of OU). That would clinch us a BCS game (though OU would beat us out for the Big 12 South by being up in the BCS ratings).

The only POSSIBLE scenario I can think of is TT losing to OU in like triple overtime, and beating Okie State by 40. But we'll just have to see.

I think we drop to #6 in the BCS. OKState and OU both have to beat Tech. I think it's a given that Florida manhandles 'Bama. What worries me, though, is that neither OU nor OkState can jump ahead of us in the BCS unless we play in and win the B12 championship game. Then we've got a lock on the Fiesta. If not, I'm worried about being ranked below OU or OkState and having them get the B12's second BCS bowl slot.

[mspurlin]

I think we drop to #6 in the BCS. OKState and OU both have to beat Tech. I think it's a given that Florida manhandles 'Bama. What worries me, though, is that neither OU nor OkState can jump ahead of us in the BCS unless we play in and win the B12 championship game. Then we've got a lock on the Fiesta. If not, I'm worried about being ranked below OU or OkState and having them get the B12's second BCS bowl slot.

Here's a scenario where we don't go to a bcs game

tech Beats OSU

Tech loses to OU

Tech, OU, and Texas are all tied for the lead in the big 12 south

per tie breaker rules, since we all beat each other, the winner of the big 12 south comes down to the highest ranked team in the bcs

OU is higest, they go to the big 12 championship and win

Tech beat us, so they are chosen above us

unless tech loses twice, it is hard to imagine us going to a bcs bowl

we had our chance tonight and blew it

[jg6544]

Here's a scenario where we don't go to a bcs game

tech Beats OSU

Tech loses to OU

Tech, OU, and Texas are all tied for the lead in the big 12 south

per tie breaker rules, since we all beat each other, the winner of the big 12 south comes down to the highest ranked team in the bcs

OU is higest, they go to the big 12 championship and win

Tech beat us, so they are chosen above us

unless tech loses twice, it is hard to imagine us going to a bcs bowl

we had our chance tonight and blew it

Unfortunately, that's a very realistic scenario.

[TEX72]

It is not a given that if Ou, Tech, and UT all have 1 loss that we are ranked behind OU. OU would have beaten Tech at Norman-a home game. We beat Ou on a "nuetral field"
Obviously it is better if OSU, Tech, and UT all have 1 loss and Ou has 3.

[mspurlin]

It is not a given that if Ou, Tech, and UT all have 1 loss that we are ranked behind OU. OU would have beaten Tech at Norman-a home game. We beat Ou on a "nuetral field"
Obviously it is better if OSU, Tech, and UT all have 1 loss and Ou has 3.

OU will be ranked highest because they lost the longest ago, and poll voters penalize teams that have been beaten the most recently. The second week in october will be a distant memory to all poll voters.

[TEX72]

Mspurlin--Lets wait and see. The national media is in love with Colt and the Horns BASED ON OUR 4 GAME DEATH MARCH THROUGH RANKED TEAMS. A three way tie between TECH, OU, AND TEXAS MAY SEND THE HORNS TO THE BIG 12 CHAMP GAME.

[editionshield]

i don't think winning out locks us into a BCS bowl by any means, JG; i think it SHOULD, but because of the stupid no-more-than-2-teams-from-a-conference rule, there are a multitude of scenarios (a couple of which folks have already brought up on this thread) in which we could win our next three games and not get a BCS bowl.

(i'll add another such scenario to the list: tech loses twice and thus puts us in the Big12 title game, but we lose to mizzou; mizzou gets the auto-bid and an 11-2 texas loses out to the 11-1 victor of the OSU-OU game.)

what we really, really need is for osu to beat tech next week, primarily. if we can start with that, then a lot of scenarios unfold much better for us, IF we win not only our next three games but *also* the fourth (CCG) if we end up there.

i think chances of this are good. tech was pretty impressive tonight, but i really don't think they're impressive enough to beat both us AND oklahoma state back-to-back, even with both games on their home turf.

[etexhorn]

I think we will be ranked ahead of Oklahoma by the computers. Our schedule has been much tougher. Okie will make up ground with games against Tech and Okie Lite later. Where we will be in the human polls is anyone's guess.

We will end up ranked higher than a one loss Tech because of SOS. Tech only plays three teams that will end up ranked. We have played four.

Okie and Okie Lite will have played four. But since we beat each of them we have a chance to be ranked higher. But if either beats two highly ranked teams at the end they will be right there with us and maybe ahead of us.

If BAma, Penn State and Tech lose I think we pass them all.

Florida will still gain some help from the SEC championship game. They could pass us. USC will only finish ahead of us if the pollsters anoint them. We will be ahead with the computers.

[Hornfan84]

I've already seen one source that says we'll be #3 in the BCS

[TrueHorn]

I posted this elsewhere, but it fits better here. OU's strength of schedule will be hurt by the fact that they played Washington and Chattanooga, neither of which has won a game. our weakness opponent, FL Atl is 3-5.

[burntorange80917]

I posted this elsewhere, but it fits better here. OU's strength of schedule will be hurt by the fact that they played Washington and Chattanooga, neither of which has won a game. our weakness opponent, FL Atl is 3-5.

Chattanooga does hurt them, but at least in Sagarins numbers Washington (123) really doesnt do much more damage to them than UTEP (109) & FAU (112) are doing to us. The Hogs win yesterday over an unbeaten Tulsa team had to help their computer ranking but OU will continue to get better if TCU (who could be a top 10 team in the very near future) & Cincinnati (6-2) keep winning. We should still have an advantage but OU's SOS is also going to get better & better from here on out as they play Tech & OSU .... while aggy & Baylor drag our numbers down a bit.

Current Sagarin Elo-Chess rankings
1.Texas Tech 95.43 (sos-64)
2.Alabama 94.22 (sos-56)
3.Texas 93.30 (sos-7)
4.Penn State 92.33 (sos-66)
5.Utah 88.10 (sos-88)
6.Oklahoma 88.06 (sos-39)

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc08.htm

[scout3dave]

Chattanooga does hurt them, but at least in Sagarins numbers Washington (123) really doesnt do much more damage to them than UTEP (109) & FAU (112) are doing to us. The Hogs win yesterday over an unbeaten Tulsa team had to help their computer ranking but OU will continue to get better if TCU (who could be a top 10 team in the very near future) & Cincinnati (6-2) keep winning. We should still have an advantage but OU's SOS is also going to get better & better from here on out as they play Tech & OSU .... while aggy & Baylor drag our numbers down a bit.

Current Sagarin Elo-Chess rankings
1.Texas Tech 95.43 (sos-64)
2.Alabama 94.22 (sos-56)
3.Texas 93.30 (sos-7)
4.Penn State 92.33 (sos-66)
5.Utah 88.10 (sos-88)
6.Oklahoma 88.06 (sos-39)

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc08.htm

There is so much FB left to be played, TT, OU, & OSU play a round robin, there is going to be carnage.We win out and we will be top 4 BCS which is still an auto qualifier, someone else will get pushed out!

Beat Baylor!

[tearaway20]

Here's a scenario where we don't go to a bcs game

tech Beats OSU

Tech loses to OU

Tech, OU, and Texas are all tied for the lead in the big 12 south

per tie breaker rules, since we all beat each other, the winner of the big 12 south comes down to the highest ranked team in the bcs

OU is higest, they go to the big 12 championship and win

Tech beat us, so they are chosen above us

unless tech loses twice, it is hard to imagine us going to a bcs bowl

we had our chance tonight and blew it

Chance that a 1-loss Tech is chosen over a 1-loss Texas as the 2nd Big 12 team in the BCS: 0%.