Coaches Corner: Wake Forest Preview

•    Player tendencies
◦    #10 Ishmael Smith –  Smith is a very aggressive, experienced point guard who looks to get into the paint at every opportunity and finish with a solid mid-range game.  On the season he is averaging 13.3 points per game and he really dictates the tempo of this Demon Deacon team, looking to push the ball on the break off makes, misses, and especially turnovers.  Smith doesn't possess a solid jump shot hitting only 42.3% from the floor and 20.8% from 3pt range on the season but will look to pull up for 15ft jump shots in transition.  Where he excels is getting into the paint on the offensive end of the floor off the pick and roll or off of penetration at the top of the key. Despite this fearless attitude he only gets to the line three times per game where he is  hitting just 50% of his free throws, which has hurt this team in close games this season.  He is a very willing passer, averaging six assists per game, which ranks 2nd in the ACC Conference but he does struggle to deliver the ball to open players in the half court at times.  Smith will also penetrate too deep into the lane and get himself in bad positions, which account for some of his 2.9 turnovers per game.  Defensively, Smith is a solid on ball defender and does a decent job off the basketball for a point guard.  He can occasionally be caught in the wrong position and, because of his size, is not the greatest defender at getting through screens but he has learned to use his quickness well over the years.  On the season he is averaging 1.8 steals per game, which ranks 4th in the ACC.  Another interesting stat involving Smith is that he averages 36.7 minutes per game on the season, which was 2nd in the ACC to Jon Scheyer of Duke.  If Texas can keep the pressure on him by rotating fresh defenders to cover Smith for 40 minutes, he could really wear down and struggle the last four minutes of the game.  Texas must limit Smith off the pick and roll and keep him out of the paint. 
◦    #42 LD Williams –  A very explosive wing player, Williams has not quite developed into the outside shooter that the Wake Forest coaching staff had hoped since he was recruited.  While averaging 8.8 points per game during his senior season, Williams is only shooting 17.6% from 3pt range (6-34).  His lack of a perimeter shot has really negated his outstanding leaping ability since it's now become more difficult for him to score in the half court.  However, Williams is outstanding in transition and has proven to be a great finisher for this Demon Deacon team.  Despite the fact that he is capable at getting to the basket in the half court, this comes from his quick first step, not an ability to put the ball on the floor.  Williams is someone who cannot create offense for himself or his teammates and has an assist to turnover ration of 1:1.  Williams is a very tough player and despite his 6'4 frame he is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game, which is good for 3rd on the squad.  He also gets to the offensive glass, averaging 2 boards per game there as well.  Defensively, Williams uses his terrific athleticism to defend both on and off the basketball at a high level.  He gets through screens well and always seems to be in the right place on help defense.  With his toughness, ability as a defender, lack of a perimeter shot, and willingness to rebound, he reminds me very much of Justin Mason. 
◦    #11 CJ Harris –  Harris is a solid scorer for the Demon Deacons and averages 10 points per game in 28 minutes of action.  Harris possesses a good first step and excels at getting to the basket.  On the season he has attempted 118 free throws and is knocking them down at an 84.7% rate, which was good enough for 3rd in the ACC.  He attacks the basket very aggressively and is looking to get all the way to the rim when he drives to his right.  He is definitely right hand dominant but will go left on occasion.  Harris is a capable perimeter shooter, hitting 34.7% from behind the arc this season and 98 of his 195 attempts (48%) have come from 3pt range.  He is more of a catch and shoot player from the perimeter but utilizes a solid shot fake to get to the basket.   As of this point in his career he doesn't possess a strong mid-range game and he isn't a creator for his teammates off the dribble.  On the defensive end Harris can be beaten off the dribble but has greatly improved throughout the season as a position defender.  Like most young players he struggles to defend players coming off of screens so look for the Longhorns to put him in a position to do just that.  Texas must keep Harris out of the lane and close out on him with discipline to prevent him from getting open looks behind the 3pt arc. 
◦    #1 Al-Farouq Aminu (pictured) -  Aminu is an outstanding athlete with a 7'4 wingspan that helps him to finish shots on the interior, rebound the basketball, and block shots.  On the season he is Wake's leading scorer, averaging 15.7 points per game (8th in the ACC) and shooting 45.3% from the floor.  He is a great athlete that can get out in transition and his explosive leaping ability has led him to be the leading rebounder in the ACC, averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, which ranks him 13th in the country.  He has shown a lot of toughness to get on the boards and really anticipates well.  During the season he has proven to be a dangerous offensive rebounder, collecting 4.2 offensive boards per game, which is one of the highest totals in the nation.  While he has shown an improved ability to handle the basketball he is still developing the ability to create his own shot off the dribble.  Aminu has a solid mid-range game but still struggles with his footwork down in the post.  On the defensive end of the floor Aminu uses his length to be a solid defender off the ball, collecting 1.5 steals per game (10th in the ACC) and 1.5 blocked shots per game (7th in the ACC).  While he still struggles at times to stay in front of quicker players on the defensive end and his defensive positioning still needs improvement, his length and natural ability really help him to have a presence on the defensive end.  Texas must keep Aminu off the glass, limit his touches in transition, and make him a perimeter player in this game in order to have success against him.
◦    #44 David Weaver –  Weaver is an experienced player that started to see more playing time for the Demon Deacons this season.  He brought a big body to the floor to help them defend the larger post players they saw during ACC action and really was a solid post defender and rebounder.  Weaver is only averaging 2.7 points and 2.1 rebounds per game in his 13 minutes of action.  He possesses range out to 10ft and tries to utilize a jump hook over his left shoulder in the post.  However, most of Weaver's work is done as a ball screener, off the ball screener, and as a garbage man for this Wake Forest team.  Defensively, look for the Longhorns to attack Weaver by establishing Dexter Pittman down low and getting him to defend pick and roll action on the perimeter.
•    Bench
◦    #13 Chas McFarland – McFarland is a player with great experience in the Wake Forest program who provides some rebounding and interior defense for this squad.  McFarland has shot the ball below his capabilities this season but is capable of stepping away to about 15ft for his shots.  He has a nice touch and is very long, enabling him to get his shot off against bigger, stronger defenders preferring to use a jump hook over his left shoulder in the post and occasionally a turnaround jump shot over his right shoulder.  McFarland uses his length to be a capable shot blocker, averaging 1.2 blocked shots per game.  However, McFarland has a long, lanky build and really lacks the strength to be a dominant post defender.  Because of this he has given up offensive rebounds at times this season and struggles to defend stronger, more athletic people in the post.  When Texas goes small with Gary Johnson playing the post position, this could be a real match-up nightmare for McFarland who doesn't have the quickness or explosiveness to defend Gary.  Dexter Pittman could also have a big day as a result of his strength and size, although I'm sure the Demon Deacons will double the post anytime the ball gets inside if they have watched much tape of Texas during its Big 12 struggles.  Despite his touch from the perimeter he has also struggled from the free throw line, shooting only 60% on the season.  I see Texas attacking him early and often, potentially forcing McFarland to the bench with early foul trouble, as he has fouled out of fives games this year. 
◦    #20 Ari Stewart –  Stewart was an important recruit this past season for the Demon Deacons and so far has made a solid impact for this team as a scorer off the bench.  On the season Stewart is averaging 17.2 minutes per game and has really produced off the bench, averaging 7.3 points per contest.  Stewart is a player who is a solid shooter and while he is a solid athlete, he is not an elite athlete, which can lead to him getting beat off the dribble defensively.  He is not a playmaker off the dribble and really struggles to create offense for himself and others.  In fact, on the season he has a  0.2:1 assist to turnover ratio (7 assists and 37 turnovers) and has only attempted 21 free throws.  He is a good shooter, but not a great shooter, and is currently shooting 37.7% from the floor overall and 37.5% from 3pt range.  Nearly half of his 212 shots on the season have come from 3pt range so the Texas defenders must be sure to know where Stewart is at all times.  They cannot allow the leading 3pt shooter on the Wake Forest team to get open looks from beyond the arc. 
◦    #55 Tony Woods -  Woods is a former 5-Star recruit out of high school and is a prospect with tremendous upside as he has a 6'10 frame with a long wingspan.  The young post player is a great shot blocker, both on the ball and coming from the weakside, but because of his lack of defensive focus he can be posted up by bigger, stronger players.  His defensive positioning needs to be improved but he is definitely an intimidating presence inside with his length as he averages 0.8 blocks per game in only 13 minutes of action.   He is also a capable rebounder, averaging 3 rebounds per game, including 1.6 offensive rebounds per game on the season.  Woods is still a work in progress on the offensive end of the floor but has solid athleticism and lift to do damage around the basket.  His footwork needs improvement but, like most big men, he does utilize a jump hook, which he shoots over his left shoulder.  Texas needs to keep him off the boards, and Dexter needs to use his body to create space and get positioning with two feet in the paint.

•    Strengths
◦    Rebounding
▪    Despite being thought of as a perimeter oriented team this Wake Forest group really does a solid job of getting on the glass to hurt opponents.  On the season the Demon Deacons finished 3rd in the ACC in rebounding margin at +3.9 per game.  While Wake is solid on the offensive boards, rebounding 43.5% of their missed shots on the season, they have really done the job on the defensive glass.  Al-Farouq Aminu led the ACC in rebounding this season and they have five players in their rotation that are 6'7 are taller, really providing them with a size advantage that most teams don't have. 
◦    Team Defense
▪    The Demon Deacons were very stingy on the defensive end of the floor this season and held their opponents to 38.3% from the field on the season, which ranked 3rd in the ACC and 8th nationally.  In addition, they held opponents to 28.9% from beyond the 3pt arc, which ranked 2nd in the ACC and also ranked 8th nationally.  Their size and athleticism on the interior has allowed them to block more shots than they have in the past as they rank 4th in the conference in blocked shots (5.4 per game).  They also have solid quickness on the perimeter which helped them to finish 5th in the conference in steals, averaging 7.3 per game.  To go along with these statistics their ability to rebound the basketball also plays a big factor in this as Wake Forest doesn't let teams hurt them with 2nd chance points. 
•    Weaknesses
◦    Half Court Offense
▪    Wake Forest has really struggled to score in the half court this season as they have only shot 43.8% as a team, which ranked the Demon Deacons 9th in the ACC.  Additionally, they were one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the ACC, ranking 11th in the conference in that category.  Their lack of ball movement is shown by the fact that they finished near the bottom of the ACC in assists per game as they rely so much on dribble penetration to create their offense.  While this team is experienced with two senior starters in the backcourt, they have struggled to make good decisions with the basketball, finishing last in the ACC and 281st nationally in assist to turnover ratio at 0.78:1.  Combine these things with the fact that this team doesn't shoot the ball particularly well and it's easy to see why they have not been an efficient half court team this season. 
◦    Perimeter Shooting
▪    On the season Wake Forest is shooting 31.3% as a team from beyond 3pt range, which ranks 11th in the ACC and right around 250th nationally.  However, this is a team that realizes its shortcomings and attempted an ACC low of 13.9 3pt shots per game this past season.  Out of the eight people in their regular rotation, only one, Ari Stewart, is shooting higher than 34.7% from beyond the arc.  Expect Texas to sag off of their perimeter shooters, with the exception of Stewart and possibly Harris, and force the Demon Deacons to beat them from long range.   

•    Texas Keys
◦    Confidence
▪    After getting routed in two of their final three games, has this Texas team given up on the season?  In both of their games against Baylor they were a group that didn't compete like Longhorn teams of the past, especially on the defensive end of the floor.  Does this team really believe that they can win two games this weekend and advance in the tournament?  If this group doesn't believe they can advance and doesn't come out and play with fire and passion on the defensive end of the floor I'm afraid that it's going to be a short stay in the post-season for this Texas team. 
◦    Points in the Paint
▪    Despite the size and quickness of this Wake Forest team, Texas must find a way to get the ball into the paint via post entry passes and dribble penetration.  Wake Forest is like Kansas State in the fact that the Demon Deacons are able to get to the free throw line at a high rate, yet still allow their opponents to attempt a high number of shots from the charity stripe.  On the season the Demon Deacons have allowed their opponents to attempt 23.4 free throws per game, which is last in the ACC and one of the highest rates nationally.  Texas must take advantage of this by attacking off the dribble with J'Covan Brown and Damion James, while also getting Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton to be more aggressive going to the basket as well.  Spacing on offense is going to be critical for Texas as the Horns need to keep the floor spread for Dexter Pittman to operate down low.  Since the Demon Deacons struggle from the perimeter, much like the Longhorns do, I believe that the team getting the ball into the paint more will win this game. 
◦    Ball Defense
▪    Wake Forest really makes its living getting to the basket on the offensive end of the floor as the Demon Deacons shoot the ball very poorly from the perimeter.  This Wake Forest group ranks 2nd in the ACC in free throw attempts per game, attempting 24.6 shots per game from the charity stripe.  Sine the injury to Dogus Balbay, Texas has really struggled to defend the basketball and this could pose major problems against a very quick and talented Wake Forest backcourt.  In addition, Al-Farouq Aminu has improved his ability to operate off the dribble so expect both Damion James and Gary Johnson to be key factors in this game at containing the basketball in the halfcourt.  Texas must sag off of the Demon Deacon players on the perimeter and force long jump shots out of this group.  If Texas can successfully contain the basketball then the Horns should have an outstanding opportunity to advance in this tournament. 
◦    Protecting the basketball
In the games that Texas has lost this year during Big 12 Conference play, a major statistic that has really shown the Horns’ struggles are points off of turnovers.  Too often this team has been careless with the basketball and made errors that lead to opponents points on the other end of the floor.  Wake Forest excels on these broken plays as this gives them an opportunity to use their athleticism on the offensive end of the floor and hides their two biggest weaknesses, which are perimeter shooting and half court offensive execution.  The Texas guards must take good care of the basketball in this game and look to attack on the offensive end of the floor instead of being so passive.  In particular, Avery Bradley and J'Covan Brown have to be aggressive, yet careful against the quickness of the Wake Forest guards.