2020 Democratic Primaries

J Galt

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Gundlach is a sobering read. Combination of Jurassic Joe and the probability of a recession in the next year would mean Sanders not only wins the nomination but captures the presidency, concurrent with Gundlach's prediction the US is perilously close to a fiscal crisis. A democratic socialist dealing with a fiscal crisis.
Agreed. If you buy into the lobbyist poll I've referenced in the past (a recession results in the Dem nominee in the white house) then Biden's campaign message that JG references ("I can beat Trump") becomes irrelevant because nearly any Democrat could do that.

In a "no **** sherlock" statement, a lot of this depends on the economy (and timing of the economy). And honestly, it's less about GDP levels and more about employment. Currently the former data is trending lower but far from negative. The latter data (employment) remains incredibly strong and employee sentiment (ability to find another job) is at all time highs.
 
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JG

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What a lot of people miss is that yes Joe could certainly lose, but it will take another candidate building enough support to beat him.

Trump never had the support of a majority of Republicans, but no one could get enough support on their own to pull even with him. Right now that’s the case for Biden.

Everyone else is jockeying around trying to get noticed and get some momentum. But people like Harris and Beto HAVE to get ahead of him at least in their home states, both of which come fairly early on the schedule.
 
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40A

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The reason I oppose ultrasounds like that is that it’s a totally unnecessary procedure. It’s just intended to guilt the woman into not having an abortion.

Abortion is legal. We don’t need additional procedures for it.

I do question conservatives about Downs and other children, because you want these born but don’t want to pay up for their health care. But that’s also another topic.

The bottom line for abortion is that sometimes two interests diverse, the mom and the baby, and one has to trump the other.

I draw the line myself at viability. Others may think differently.

I will say that I would be fine with outlawing abortion...but only if women alone voted up or down on that. They are the ones that carry these pregnancies, not men.
As a father, and being one yourself, you should be ashamed of this position.
 
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JG

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As a father, and being one yourself, you should be ashamed of this position.
I have three children. My ex bore the risks and responsibilities of carrying them in her body, not me. Had she decided that she did not want a child at the time, I would have respected that decision (while likely moving on and finding someone else). Luckily for us, our children were planned, and we did not face that decision.

Women face these risks and responsibilities, not men. Yet pro-life movements are heavily made up of men. Men deciding what women should have to do with their bodies. That is immoral to me.

If women alone decided abortion should be outlawed, I would have no problem with it. I am very comfortable with my moral stances, thanks.
 

jamesrh

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Agree. College isn't for everyone and we need to stop, as a society, propagating everyone should go to college. For too many it's less about a desire to get a degree, one that is worth a **** anyway, and more about putting off adulthood while getting the "college experience".

While I am on my pedestal, I recently went to registration/orientation with my daughter. Something I observed while watching as the school dismissed students by degree program to go to a class advising session. When education, nursing, sports medicine/kinesiology, psychology students were dismissed it was probably 90% female and 10% male. When engineering (all types), math, sciences (not future teachers) and business majors were dismissed it was 90% male and 10% female. Apparently the patriarchy has told future students they must go into specific majors based on gender so we can keep things they way we like. Although, it could be males and females just enjoy different career paths.
Plenty of good studies out there that indicate the more wage mobility there is in a country, the greater the gender disparity in occupations. In developing countries, there are a lot more female engineers, than in the 1st world, because they need those engineering dollars to feed their families.
 

jamesrh

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I have three children. My ex bore the risks and responsibilities of carrying them in her body, not me. Had she decided that she did not want a child at the time, I would have respected that decision (while likely moving on and finding someone else). Luckily for us, our children were planned, and we did not face that decision.

Women face these risks and responsibilities, not men. Yet pro-life movements are heavily made up of men. Men deciding what women should have to do with their bodies. That is immoral to me.

If women alone decided abortion should be outlawed, I would have no problem with it. I am very comfortable with my moral stances, thanks.
This is a fallacy. The pro-life movement is made of as many women as men and the women tend to be more outspoken about their view on the subject on the whole. Women also occupy leadership positions in many pro-life organizations, some of which are made up exclusively of women.

Here is one article that goes not into the makeup of organizations but general opinions on the subject, which bear out the underpinnings of the above:
https://www.vox.com/2019/5/20/18629644/abortion-gender-gap-public-opinion
 

JG

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This stance will get me in trouble with some, and it's not PC, but the choices of men and women are just different. Young women often follow a path that is less challenging, less stressful, and it's because they have the option. Many want career where they can have and care for children. Men don't.

The glass ceiling is there in many ways because men are much more willing to sacrifice home and family to get ahead, and they get rewarded. Women often don't, and that's ok too. People should be free to follow a path that rewards them and their family, whether it be financially or otherwise.
 

calvin farquhar

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This is a fallacy. The pro-life movement is made of as many women as men and the women tend to be more outspoken about their view on the subject on the whole. Women also occupy leadership positions in many pro-life organizations, some of which are made up exclusively of women.

Here is one article that goes not into the makeup of organizations but general opinions on the subject, which bear out the underpinnings of the above:
https://www.vox.com/2019/5/20/18629644/abortion-gender-gap-public-opinion
It was funny, ironic, when the pro-life leg of several states was signed into law and the lefties from Hollywood and AOC decided they'd attack it back going all in on the man angle, similar to JG. The truth came out it was a bunch of women that created, passed and signed the law and they all shut up. Making up **** as they go is the lefty way.
 

JG

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This is a fallacy. The pro-life movement is made of as many women as men and the women tend to be more outspoken about their view on the subject on the whole. Women also occupy leadership positions in many pro-life organizations, some of which are made up exclusively of women.

Here is one article that goes not into the makeup of organizations but general opinions on the subject, which bear out the underpinnings of the above:
https://www.vox.com/2019/5/20/18629644/abortion-gender-gap-public-opinion
So ok. Let the women make that call. I’d be ok with it.
 

PFD

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Skills training is not a bad idea. There are millions of skilled labor jobs (plumbers, welders, electricians, carpenters, IT, med techs, etc) that go unfilled due to lack of qualified candidates. Instead of people living on the government dole, it would make more sense to teach them a marketable skill.
Agree. College isn't for everyone and we need to stop, as a society, propagating everyone should go to college. For too many it's less about a desire to get a degree, one that is worth a **** anyway, and more about putting off adulthood while getting the "college experience".

While I am on my pedestal, I recently went to registration/orientation with my daughter. Something I observed while watching as the school dismissed students by degree program to go to a class advising session. When education, nursing, sports medicine/kinesiology, psychology students were dismissed it was probably 90% female and 10% male. When engineering (all types), math, sciences (not future teachers) and business majors were dismissed it was 90% male and 10% female. Apparently the patriarchy has told future students they must go into specific majors based on gender so we can keep things they way we like. Although, it could be males and females just enjoy different career paths.
Agree. Hickenlooper has other planks in his platform that I am against but this one is worth allocation of taxpayer money. Better than Andrew Yang's Universal Basic Income to pay people not to work.

The Northern California Builder's Association has all sorts of apprenticeships\paid programs they offer, due to the lack of young people entering the trades. The builders here in my neck of the woods are begging for skilled craftsmen.
I was talking last week with a new friend who is a middle school teacher in Mansfield ISD, where they have reportedly converted one of their high schools entirely towards trades.

He said that some of his biggest “problem kids” have turned it around and thrived after learning a marketable trade, earning some well-earned pay, and developing a healthy self-identity.

We conservatives see this story as a lesson in how government (school district) and the market can work together to help people. But I don’t know if our progressive friends see it the same way.
 

40A

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I have three children. My ex bore the risks and responsibilities of carrying them in her body, not me. Had she decided that she did not want a child at the time, I would have respected that decision (while likely moving on and finding someone else). Luckily for us, our children were planned, and we did not face that decision.

Women face these risks and responsibilities, not men. Yet pro-life movements are heavily made up of men. Men deciding what women should have to do with their bodies. That is immoral to me.

If women alone decided abortion should be outlawed, I would have no problem with it. I am very comfortable with my moral stances, thanks.
This is not even remotely true. When your ex-wife got pregnant, did you just disappear for 9 months to 18 years?
 

J Galt

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This is not even remotely true. When your ex-wife got pregnant, did you just disappear for 9 months to 18 years?
By his own logic, only white people should be allowed to vote on issues of affirmative action or reparations since they’d bear the risks and responsibilities.

Ironically it’s his own way of silencing dissent by invoking who has legal standing in the argument.
 

JG

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By his own logic, only white people should be allowed to vote on issues of affirmative action or reparations since they’d bear the risks and responsibilities.

Ironically it’s his own way of silencing dissent by invoking who has legal standing in the argument.
Totally different scenario.

It's my opinion. You are free to have yours.
 

JG

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This is a pseudo-intellectual cop-out. Everybody has an opinion. Have an informed one. Have a logical one.
Disagree. My opinion is logical and informed.

Those who bear the risk and responsibility of pregnancy should decide whether pregnancies can be terminated. Not those who don't.
 

40A

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Disagree. My opinion is logical and informed.

Those who bear the risk and responsibility of pregnancy should decide whether pregnancies can be terminated. Not those who don't.
Again, when your ex-wife got pregnant, did you run away from fatherhood for 9 months to 18 years?
 

JG

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Again, when your ex-wife got pregnant, did you run away from fatherhood for 9 months to 18 years?
Foolish question. Of course not. Even when she wanted me to when we split up.
 

acreativeusername

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Gundlach is a sobering read. Combination of Jurassic Joe and the probability of a recession in the next year would mean Sanders not only wins the nomination but captures the presidency, concurrent with Gundlach's prediction the US is perilously close to a fiscal crisis. A democratic socialist dealing with a fiscal crisis.
I’m reading an article in this Schwab magazine that talks about how 2017 was the least volatile market year of the past 20.

I’m wondering if even if no fiscal crisis occurs, the increased volatility over the absolute minimum makes people more nervous, and thus likely to vote against Trump despite the strong performance
 
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JG

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Foolish opinion is outed by a foolish question.

Then of course you have also faced risks and responsibilities. That's what fatherhood is about and why it's not just a woman's decision.
Not to my body.

It’s her decision.
 

JG

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You're talking about the unborn baby, right?
Nope. The woman.

Look guys, this is it going anywhere. You might as well find something else to beat me up over because I’m not going to change your mind on this, nor are you.
 

J Galt

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Not to my body.

It’s her decision.
See this gets at the heart of the nuance of the issue. Pro-choice advocates are quick to invoke women's rights as a "health" issue. Since the woman's physical body is "at risk" it's her decision alone. Men should stay out. But this means what we're discussing isn't a reproductive right (later form of birth control), it's simply a health concern. In which case, it's not about reproductive choice it's purely about safety.

However, most of the pro-choice advocates would acknowledge that it goes beyond that. It's about the choice to have a child and the long-term ramifications that would ensue. If that's the case, it is not SOLELY her burden because legally, the father, and perhaps society are on the hook. If viewed through this lens of "birth control" there are absolutely other stakeholders to consider. And we haven't even considered the rights of the unborn.

What frustrates many is hopping back and forth between right to choose based on reproductive independence (which forces the father into the equation) and health concern (which leaves it purely to the woman and her doctor). Said another way, if the father has no choice in birth control decisions, should he be financially liable if the mother wants to carry the pregnancy to term? Slippery slopes.
 
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Eric Nahlin

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Thoreau'd on Walden
You aren’t what most people would consider a progressive. I know you consider yourself one and there’s value in fighting for the definitional term but the Oberlin people are proud progressives I’m sure and you aren’t them.

I measure on the Libertarian/Conservative scale so I understand the frustration when definitions get stolen from you, especially what the word liberal means.

To the original point, I don’t see how anyone of the Left preaches individualism or learning a trade. They certainly aren’t running for president.

We’re talking politics here. I know many people who vote Democrat preach and instill work ethic. That proof is on full display. That just makes it all the more frustrating that their preferred politicians run against personal accountability, individuality, etc.
 

Duke Silver

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I mean that the people who (foolishly) claim that “everyone should go to college” would probably have a beef with a kid—especially a minority kid—choosing trade school over college.
Never really considered that a progressive view. Seems like “go to college” has been a bi-partisan admonition for a while now.
 
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padrehorn11

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Skills training is not a bad idea. There are millions of skilled labor jobs (plumbers, welders, electricians, carpenters, IT, med techs, etc) that go unfilled due to lack of qualified candidates. Instead of people living on the government dole, it would make more sense to teach them a marketable skill.
OK I'm going to go bleeding heart liberal on y'all now, though I prefer to be called a compassionate Conservative.

The truth is there really aren't nearly as many many able bodied men and women simply "living of the Government dole" as many members of this forum may think. Some of those jobs listed for skills training, for example, carpenter, or plumber's assistant, and many somewhat skilled jobs still pay poverty level wages in many places. Honestly, I don't know how a whole hell of a lot of people who do work even some of the jobs you're talking about would manage to provide for a family on their earnings without some kind of assistance. I'm not talking about the college-educated engineers, or geologists, or doctors, or lawyers, or people with highly trained skills from the military who generally frequent this forum.

But my circle of acquaintances has expanded a lot in recent years, in several ways, and it's opened my eyes to some things. I'm related to a lot Hispanics now, through one ex-wife, and a current son-in-law and what with the way familial relationships work with most Hispanics, family means lots of people, some most Anglos might call distant relations, but heck a second cpousin once removed in a Hispanic familly can count as a close relation. And a whole lot, heck almost all of them are not very well off. I also expanded my circle of friends and acqaiuiaintances a good bit through the church down in the Valley where I spent five years as a Deacon, which meant a lot of people came to me in confidence with their problems. That was really an eye opening experiennce I'll tell you. I asked a friend who is a former Episcopal Priest how he had handled just hearing so many things that owuld just tear at your heart (assuming you had one--not mentioning any names here). His advice was that you had to learn to literally leave the things you couldn't handle "at the foot of the cross" or they would eat you up. It works.

Other than Social Security and Medicare the programs listed below are the major Federal Welfare programs(some supplemented in varying degrees by each State individually) Some of these such as TANF have work requirements. In second largest program, SNAP, 82% goes to children, the elderly, or the disabled. Now admittedly there is fraud there, but a lot more of TANF, NIT, And Housing Asssistance does go to people with jobs, and depnding on where they live a lot of them are the kind of jobs you're talking about. I knew families on SNAP in the Valley who had two working parents and the father was a painter, or dry waller, or roofer, opr some at least semi-skilled manual labor. I have a good friend down in LAguna Vista who is a carpenter (and his wife worked an unskilled job) and they simply don't make much money. It really embarrassed my friend the carpenter when some mutual friends accidentally found out they were on SNAP. Well, admittedly, they squander some of their scarce money on things like fostering dogs--they took in my dog Zorra from the local Humane Society when she was pregnant and abandoned (a very young single mother), saw the puppies born, and found homes for them. But Australian Cattle Dogs, as the literature on dogs says are not for beginning dog owners--they're great dogs, but they need a lot of attention, a certain amount of real exercise (physical and mental), and in general yo u need to understand dogs, or they can be real problem dogs. Anyway, I'm digressing, so sue me, but they were getting kind of desperate to find a home for Zorra. They had five Dobermans of their own and Zorra had them cowed. So I was talking to him after I moved out here and he mentioned Zorra. I was ready for a dog after grieving for my previous dog for many months (best dog ever, but all my dogs fit that category) so I drove down to the Valley and adopted Zorra. Yes she was a "teenage welfare mother". Want to make something of it?

Here's a list of 'Welfare ' programs. And there are various resources to find out who and how many people these actually cover, and all the details. But the point is that most of these programs (though there is waste and fraud) do provide a real 'safety net' that I think is a necessary part of even a Capitalist, free-market economy based society). We don't really have a "dole" in the U.S., at least in the classic sense of the word. Especially after the 1996 Welfare reform. Now it's fair to note how expensive Medicais is, and yes, that is one program illegal aliens receive benefits from. What percentage of the program goes to them, well, someone else can dig that up. But I'd bet that if we through every illegal alien out of the country and built an impervious wall, it wouldn't put a big dent in the deficit. But that's another argument, and I'm not going to fight that battle now. Especially now.
42444

And while we're at it, here's a link to an article about 'welfare' that has a lot of facts. https://wellkeptwallet.com/statistics-welfare-america/

Anyway, yes there are fit adults on some or several kinds of welfare who could be trained up for those jobs you mention, but the actual pool
is smaller than you might think. So all in all, while there is undoubtedly waste and/or fraud in 'Welfare' the real picture is not what most of the people in this forum might think.

Am I against skills training? By no means. iIt's a great idea, but it's not going to greatly reduce the need for our current programs.
 

windycityhorn

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You aren’t what most people would consider a progressive. I know you consider yourself one and there’s value in fighting for the definitional term but the Oberlin people are proud progressives I’m sure and you aren’t them.

I measure on the Libertarian/Conservative scale so I understand the frustration when definitions get stolen from you, especially what the word liberal means.

To the original point, I don’t see how anyone of the Left preaches individualism or learning a trade. They certainly aren’t running for president.

We’re talking politics here. I know many people who vote Democrat preach and instill work ethic. That proof is on full display. That just makes it all the more frustrating that their preferred politicians run against personal accountability, individuality, etc.
I don't want to digress too far into political labels, except to say that I considered myself both a liberal and a progressive long before those terms were co-opted by callow reactionaries on the left and turned into slurs by the right. And that perhaps folks such as yourself, if I may presume, now wonder what the term "conservative" means any more.

But my response to @PFD was intentional; Programs like the one he pointed out are bedrock progressive ideas -- again, talking about progressivism in the classic, Roosevelt sense. (What the right calls progressivism today is actually socialism and/or big-city-bleeding-heartism; the former is undoubtedly on the rise within the political left, and the latter never went away.)

Support for trade schools is one of the few things both sides actually agree on, and last year Congress passed a bipartisan bill giving those schools more support. As you said, we're talking politics here. I don't see anyone running on learning a trade, either. It's not an issue that gets voters to the polls. But I could point to Democratic causes like universal Pre-K, paid family leave and raising the minimum wage, all of which are classic progressive ideas that are easily caricatured as socialism and government overreach but which are all aimed directly at the constituencies that conservatives accuse Democrats of not really caring about. I don't think any of those things get voters to the polls, either, to be honest. Presidential reelection campaigns are a referendum on the incumbent above all, and that's going to be the case again in 2020.
 

Duke Silver

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Isn’t it the hardcore socialists like AOC and Bernie who are pushing universal free college tuition?
Yeah but that’s a new thing. I’m talking historically. Also, I’m not sure their free tuition plan can’t be applied to trade schools, but I haven’t looked into it because it’s so stupid.
 
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jnark32

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But I could point to Democratic causes like universal Pre-K, paid family leave and raising the minimum wage, all of which are classic progressive ideas that are easily caricatured as socialism and government overreach but which are all aimed directly at the constituencies that conservatives accuse Democrats of not really caring about.
Yea, this is an accurate depiction of the core of Democratic/Left policies as I see it. They are about developing robust social programs that help people take care of basic needs so that they can freely participate in the market with a degree of self-determination.

Do all Democrats actually live up to these ideals? Of course not. But the core ideas are sound.
 
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PFD

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Yeah but that’s a new thing. I’m talking historically. Also, I’m not sure their free tuition plan can’t be applied to trade schools, but I haven’t looked into it because it’s so stupid.
Your wife works or used to work at Brookings, right?

https://www.brookings.edu/research/should-everyone-go-to-college/

This is a 2013 paper in response to President Obama’s “economic imperative” that all kids should be encouraged to go to college.

As the authors aptly note, many of those kids have emerged from college campuses—some with degrees, some without—with a mountain of debt and a modicum of marketable skills.

There’s a reason why the student loan debt crisis is so reminiscent of the mortgage lending crisis.
 
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Duke Silver

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Your wife works or used to work at Brookings, right?

https://www.brookings.edu/research/should-everyone-go-to-college/

This is a 2013 paper in response to President Obama’s “economic imperative” that all kids should be encouraged to go to college.

As the authors aptly note, many of those kids have emerged from college campuses—some with degrees, some without—with a mountain of debt and a modicum of marketable skills.

There’s a reason why the student loan debt crisis is so reminiscent of the mortgage lending crisis.
No, she works at Rand.

I get all this.
 
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