Agreed. If you buy into the lobbyist poll I've referenced in the past (a recession results in the Dem nominee in the white house) then Biden's campaign message that JG references ("I can beat Trump") becomes irrelevant because nearly any Democrat could do that.Gundlach is a sobering read. Combination of Jurassic Joe and the probability of a recession in the next year would mean Sanders not only wins the nomination but captures the presidency, concurrent with Gundlach's prediction the US is perilously close to a fiscal crisis. A democratic socialist dealing with a fiscal crisis.
In a "no **** sherlock" statement, a lot of this depends on the economy (and timing of the economy). And honestly, it's less about GDP levels and more about employment. Currently the former data is trending lower but far from negative. The latter data (employment) remains incredibly strong and employee sentiment (ability to find another job) is at all time highs.