2020 Democratic Primaries

JG

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I doubt Biden lasts long into the new year whether it be after IA/NH or Super Tuesday. He was always a horrible candidate. He was a gaffe machine 30 years ago when he first ran for Prez and he's gotten worse with age.

He should have listened to Obama when he said "You don't have to do this Joe"
Who’s going to knock him out? His base of support doesn’t fall naturally to any of the other front runners.
 

UTGrad91

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Who’s going to knock him out? His base of support doesn’t fall naturally to any of the other front runners.
Warren is the most likely nominee. She's now the favorite in the betting marketplace which is historically a better gauge of who eventually wins as opposed to current polls.
 
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JG

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Warren is the most likely nominee. She's now the favorite in the betting marketplace which is historically a better gauge of who eventually wins as opposed to current polls.
We will find out. Outside of college educated white liberals she is not popular.
 

calvin farquhar

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Warren is the most likely nominee. She's now the favorite in the betting marketplace which is historically a better gauge of who eventually wins as opposed to current polls.
Will get mopped up off the floor with a hedge to there's no telling what the Republican idiot will say.
 

futures2015

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JG

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For some inexplicable reason, Democrats seem to think that "fighting climate change" makes it's necessary for Americans to revert to the lifestyle of 14th century serfs ... not the rest of the world, mind you, just Americans.
Great. That will lock up the Amish vote.
 
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futures2015

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Great. That will lock up the Amish vote.
Do Amish vote?

Amish electoral participation is limited, though some Amish do vote
Only a small number of Amish cast ballots in presidential elections, perhaps 10-15%. Amish may be more likely to get involved when voting involves issues which directly affect them, such as zoning. Amish generally do not vote for a few reasons.

Why don’t most Amish participate in political elections?
For one, Amish follow a “Two Kingdoms” theology, which holds that there exist both a material and a spiritual kingdom. While respecting worldly governments, Amish feel that Christians should adhere to the laws of the spiritual kingdom above all.
Though Amish are highly law-abiding, they view the material kingdom as worldly and traditionally limit interaction within it. Amish believe in non-resistance, and may be hesitant to take part in electing a politician who may use force as an agent of the state. Amish do not hold political office themselves, for similar reasons.
Additionally, voting in national elections for candidates who enact a wide array of laws in distant Washington may be seen as an abstract endeavor. This is one reason that local elections concerning tangible issues may receive a greater response from Amish
.
Did not know the answer ... so I looked it up.
 

UTGrad91

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We will find out. Outside of college educated white liberals she is not popular.
Hard to see her getting much support from minorities. She was hired at Harvard under an affirmative action plan based on the lie that she was a minority so in essence she took a job away from a real minority.
 

futures2015

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Hard to see her getting much support from minorities. She was hired at Harvard under an affirmative action plan based on the lie that she was a minority so in essence she took a job away from a real minority.
We're living in a fact-fluid time.

Objective truth is increasingly racist, homophobic, misogynistic, etc. One's personal truth is what counts. Elizabeth Warren truly believed she was a Cherokee and anyone who suggests otherwise is just being mean.
 

eodhorn

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We're living in a fact-fluid time.

Objective truth is increasingly racist, homophobic, misogynistic, etc. One's personal truth is what counts. Elizabeth Warren truly believed she was a Cherokee and anyone who suggests otherwise is just being mean.
And racist/sexist against white women who want to gain benefits from being a non-genetic minority.
 

JG

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Hard to see her getting much support from minorities. She was hired at Harvard under an affirmative action plan based on the lie that she was a minority so in essence she took a job away from a real minority.
That's true, but it's more than that also. She (and Bernie also) is a stereotypical white northeastern progressive. Not very popular with the brothers, to quote Reggie Hammond. It was the reason Hillary won last time, not the DNC. Black voters don't like progressiv candidates much.

If the Pubs would distance themselves from Trump's dog whistle, your point about minorities switching to the GOP because they are more conservative would definitely be in play.
 

UTGrad91

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That's true, but it's more than that also. She (and Bernie also) is a stereotypical white northeastern progressive. Not very popular with the brothers, to quote Reggie Hammond. It was the reason Hillary won last time, not the DNC. Black voters don't like progressiv candidates much.

If the Pubs would distance themselves from Trump's dog whistle, your point about minorities switching to the GOP because they are more conservative would definitely be in play.
HRC wasn't that popular among African Americans. Yes, she got 92% of the black vote, but turnout was low, only 10% of the vote as compared to 13% for Obama. Warren will be the same if she's the nominee. She'll get 90 plus % but turnout will be lower.
 
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JG

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HRC wasn't that popular among African Americans. Yes, she got 92% of the black vote, but turnout was low, only 10% of the vote as compared to 13% for Obama. Warren will be the same if she's the nominee. She'll get 90 plus % but turnout will be lower.
I agree, and that’s part of the reason I think Trump beats Warren.

But it’s also the reason Warren and Sanders will have an uphill fight to get to the nomination.
 

TEXBTP

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HRC wasn't that popular among African Americans. Yes, she got 92% of the black vote, but turnout was low, only 10% of the vote as compared to 13% for Obama. Warren will be the same if she's the nominee. She'll get 90 plus % but turnout will be lower.
Yes. trump train will roll in 2020, unless he kills someone.
 

calvin farquhar

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Forget facts, go with your feelings. Williamson on using nuclear energy.


The International Atomic Energy Agency reports (IAEA): "Nuclear power makes a significant contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide while fulfilling at the same time the increasing energy demands of a growing world population and supporting global sustainable development. Nuclear power plants produce virtually no greenhouse gas emissions or air pollutants during their operation and only very low emission levels during their entire life cycle. As a result, the use of nuclear power avoids the emission of nearly 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide every year – the equivalent of taking over 400 million cars off the road per year."
 

Eric Nahlin

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Thoreau'd on Walden

calvin farquhar

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The visual of him telling his Twitter minion — the one that keys it in unintelligibly because it polls better with the COMMON man — “make sure ‘part time mayor’ is in there” is too much.

He’s hilarious.
I liked the "polling at a solid ZERO but with tremendous room for growth" part. One of his better tweets.
 

padrehorn11

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Ban commercial air travel and only the wealthy elite who own their own their own planes can fly. No one owns their own car. Can yu imagine it now? Fleets of owner-less, driver-less electric cars to serve America. That will work really well outside the confines of uberurban America.

Someone said a while back they thought Yang had good sense but he relied too much on government solutions. Uh yeah, right.
 
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J Galt

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So I've been saying for a while that Biden would not be the nominee. Iowa is "trending" towards Warren. However the key takeaway is this excerpt:

"But the race is far from settled: Just one in five likely Democratic caucusgoers say their minds are made up, while 63% say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate.

“The data in this poll seem to suggest the field is narrowing, but my sense is there’s still opportunity aplenty,” Selzer said. “The leaders aren’t all that strong. The universe is not locked in.”


Basically, Biden's lead in the national polls at this point is meaningless. As I said in June, he's in the Jeb Bush position of having the name recognition. Once votes start being cast, he'll fade.
 
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JG

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So I've been saying for a while that Biden would not be the nominee. Iowa is "trending" towards Warren. However the key takeaway is this excerpt:

"But the race is far from settled: Just one in five likely Democratic caucusgoers say their minds are made up, while 63% say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate.

“The data in this poll seem to suggest the field is narrowing, but my sense is there’s still opportunity aplenty,” Selzer said. “The leaders aren’t all that strong. The universe is not locked in.”


Basically, Biden's lead in the national polls at this point is meaningless. As I said in June, he's in the Jeb Bush position of having the name recognition. Once votes start being cast, he'll fade.
Iowa is hardly a bellwether state.

Warren has almost zero support amongst minorities and she will need them to win.
 

J Galt

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Iowa is hardly a bellwether state.

Warren has almost zero support amongst minorities and she will need them to win.
Feb 3. Iowa
Feb 11 New Hampshire
Feb 22 Nevada

That's the first three elections, all with low minority influence. If her momentum builds between now and February while Biden continues on this path


it'll be curtains for Biden.

At a separate recent campaign stop in New Hampshire, Biden’s wife, Dr. Jill Biden, flat-out told voters they should consider her husband because he had the best chance to beat Trump.

“I know that not all of you are committed to my husband, and I respect that, but I want you to think about your candidate, his or her electability, and who’s going to win this race,” she said. “You know you may like another candidate better but you have to look at who’s going to win. Joe is that person.”

Unlike Warren (the plans candidate) and Sanders (the political revolution candidate), the biggest part of Biden’s pitch to voters is that he has the best shot of unseating Trump in a general election and returning America to the normalcy it enjoyed in the pre-Trump era that Biden, as Obama’s vice president, embodies.

This political message may be all the more salient considering Sanders and Warren are Biden’s biggest competition right now, and both are seen as considerably more progressive than him. But Biden’s electability message also has an inherent weakness: If voters start thinking he’s not as electable as he says he is, his pitch sounds hollow.

“The moment he’s shown not to be electable, since they have no other reason to be attached to Joe Biden, it’s easy to move these voters to someone else, at least temporarily,”
Murray, the Monmouth pollster, told Vox.
 
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JG

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Feb 3. Iowa
Feb 11 New Hampshire
Feb 22 Nevada

That's the first three elections, all with low minority influence. If her momentum builds between now and February while Biden continues on this path


it'll be curtains for Biden.

At a separate recent campaign stop in New Hampshire, Biden’s wife, Dr. Jill Biden, flat-out told voters they should consider her husband because he had the best chance to beat Trump.

“I know that not all of you are committed to my husband, and I respect that, but I want you to think about your candidate, his or her electability, and who’s going to win this race,” she said. “You know you may like another candidate better but you have to look at who’s going to win. Joe is that person.”

Unlike Warren (the plans candidate) and Sanders (the political revolution candidate), the biggest part of Biden’s pitch to voters is that he has the best shot of unseating Trump in a general election and returning America to the normalcy it enjoyed in the pre-Trump era that Biden, as Obama’s vice president, embodies.

This political message may be all the more salient considering Sanders and Warren are Biden’s biggest competition right now, and both are seen as considerably more progressive than him. But Biden’s electability message also has an inherent weakness: If voters start thinking he’s not as electable as he says he is, his pitch sounds hollow.

“The moment he’s shown not to be electable, since they have no other reason to be attached to Joe Biden, it’s easy to move these voters to someone else, at least temporarily,”
Murray, the Monmouth pollster, told Vox.
Those states together total 130 delegates.

Super Tuesday is two weeks later. Texas alone has twice as many as all those put together. California has almost four times that many.

Warren’s core of support are highly educated liberal whites. You can’t win the nomination with them alone. And she has yet to crack 20% in Texas, and isn’t over that in CA.

With as front loaded as the primary is, and as well financed as the other front runners are, it isn’t likely that any of them will drop before Super Tuesday.

Biden isnt just leading because people think he can win, it’s because he’s the only one of the front runners that is palatable to many Dems who aren’t progressives.
 
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eodhorn

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Those states together total 130 delegates.

Super Tuesday is two weeks later. Texas alone has twice as many as all those put together. California has almost four times that many.

Warren’s core of support are highly educated liberal whites. You can’t win the nomination with them alone. And she has yet to crack 20% in Texas, and isn’t over that in CA.

With as front loaded as the primary is, and as well financed as the other front runners are, it isn’t likely that any of them will drop before Super Tuesday.

Biden isnt just leading because people think he can win, it’s because he’s the only one of the front runners that is palatable to many Dems who aren’t progressives.
I always wonder how highly educated people fail to understand what the number trillion means and why it’s simply not feasible.
 
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J Galt

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Those states together total 130 delegates.

Super Tuesday is two weeks later. Texas alone has twice as many as all those put together. California has almost four times that many.
yeah but history shows much of super Tuesday swings towards the front runners that emerge from the early states.

Biden isnt just leading because people think he can win, it’s because he’s the only one of the front runners that is palatable to many Dems who aren’t progressives.
Well then, this is his only hope. Because "i'm the most electable" isn't a winning message.
 

padrehorn11

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I always wonder how highly educated people fail to understand what the number trillion means and why it’s simply not feasible.
Two thoughts here:
1. Most educated people still can't do math. I don' think being numerate is a requirement for most non-STEM degrees.

2. We've learned from AOC that even Economics degrees also do not require numeracy. At least at prestigious Boston University.
 
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JG

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yeah but history shows much of super Tuesday swings towards the front runners that emerge from the early states.


Well then, this is his only hope. Because "i'm the most electable" isn't a winning message.
Except for many the likes of Warren are unpalatable. They look at her and see Hillary. They aren’t going to come to her until they have to (which would be if she won and went against Trump).

She is the media darling but not that of many Dem voters.
 

padrehorn11

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[QUOTE="J Galt, post: 3095141, member: 25609"

Well then, this is his only hope. Because "i'm the most electable" isn't a winning message.
[/QUOTE]
No, but "free ****" may work well enough. Admittedly, Biden's rivals have a head start in the "free ****" lane.
 

sacatomato horn

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Iowa is hardly a bellwether state.

Warren has almost zero support amongst minorities and she will need them to win.
The Iowa Caucus has been a good predictor of the eventual nominee on the Dem side. Since 1980, only 2 Dem winners in Iowa did not go on to win the nomination. Warren also has the benefit of being a New Englander, an advantage in New Hampshire. Joe could be starting the season like the NY Giants. 0-2.

This electability thing is pretty thin gruel. Any loss of momentum early will snowball on Joe.
 
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scout3dave

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Biden is polling less than 30% against the field and he also appears to be the most moderate of the group. As the also rans start collapsing, where is their vote going to go? To the moderate? or split among the remaining progressives? I would think they would gravitate to Warren.

The thing about Warren is that she is very smart, I think she will raise to the top because she can articulate a plan even if it is a terrible plan. It will definitely be interesting to watch the process. I think she will do to the dems what Trump did to the pubs.
 
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JG

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The Iowa Caucus has been a good predictor of the eventual nominee on the Dem side. Since 1980, only 2 Dem winners in Iowa did not go on to win the nomination. Warren also has the benefit of being a New Englander, an advantage in New Hampshire. Joe could be starting the season like the NY Giants. 0-2.

This electability thing is pretty thin gruel. Any loss of momentum early will snowball on Joe.
The slate hasn’t been front loaded like this before. So it’s very different.