A new storm headed to the Gulf?

TOK2000

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I don't think I can ever remember a Gulf storm that didn't either start in the Gulf or come into the Gulf from the Atlantic.

But we have one predicted for this weekend that starts in the Southeastern States like this one has.. is this a first?
 

padrehorn11

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Tropical Disturbances and Depressions can start mainly over land but they really need to be over water to get a circulation going and that circulation is when they become a Tropical Storm. The big question is will this one drift far enough south to go from a Disturbance/Depression to a Tropical storm and maybe then Hurricane. This looks at the scenarios. A storm like this, this early, is rare, but not unheard of, evidently.

This site is really good for hurricane stuff, but otherwise it goes way overboard on Climate Change and a lot of th e posters there know their meteorology, but they are completely bought into AOC's version of Climate Change and you never see all the factors regarding discussed and critical questioning is shouted down.

Stick to the Hurricane stuff and it's very good. You don't just get the NHC best guess but lots more. I watched Hurricanes really closely when I lived 20 feet from the Gulf (technically the Laguna Madre). The posters there are really right on the minute with really detailed updated info and discussion...but they're geeks. But science geeks are ok until they try to wrap their brains around politics. With an active Storm going, the stay on topic pretty well.

If you just want the KilffsNotes version, of course this is adequate https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc The five day picture develos is into possibly a Cat 1 and takes it west tn=into Louisiana or far East Texas. The models especially at three days have become vey accurate as to track, not so good with intensity. And with a hurricane very accurate still means areas fifty miles apart can get very very different effects...depending.
 

bHero

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Tropical Disturbances can start mainly over land but they really need to be over water to get a circulation going and that circulation is when they become a Tropical Storm. The big question is will this one drift far enough south to go from a Disturbance to a Tropical storm and maybe then Hurricane. This looks at the scenarios. A storm like this, this early, is rare, but not unheard of, evidently.

This site is really good for hurricane stuff, but otherwise it goes way overboard on Climate Change and a lot of th e posters there know their meteorology, but they are completely bought into AOC's version of Climate Change and you never see all the factors regarding discussed and critical questioning is shouted down.

Stick to the Hurricane stuff and it's very good. You don't just get the NHC best guess but lots more. I watched Hurricanes really closely when I lived 20 feet from the Gulf (technically the Laguna Madre). The posters there are really right on the minute with really detailed updated info and discussion...but they're geeks. But science geeks are ok until they try to wrap their brains around politics. With an active Storm going, the stay on topic pretty well.

If you just want the KilffsNotes version, of course this is adequate https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
I get almost all of my data from NOAA.
 

JG

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The unusual thing is this storm is starting out on land over the US then backtracking into the Gulf.

Or at least to along the coast. That’s the biggest question, whether it gets out over the water and stays there long enough to organize. Euro model says yes, GFS generally says no, or if if it does would be very weak.

My best guess right now is between the two, rolling along or just south of the coast, and going into LA as a mid level tropical storm with lots of rain.
 
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padrehorn11

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I get almost all of my data from NOAA.
The NHC is just the branch of NOAA that deals with hurricane forecasts and such. It's good for its purpose, it's just that it's pretty much basic information that is all the people possibly affected actually need to know. But Hurricanes are interesting phenomena scientifically and there's lots more stuff about them individually and as a category of meteorological phenomena that interests someone of my bent. It's kind of like like you can read the sports pages and maybe ESPN about UT football, or you can also read the IT Premium sports forum.

Back with Katrina, well before most people realized it was such a major threat, or even before the HNC issued the first watches for the Louisiana coast, what I had learned caused me to feelconfifent it would make the sharp turn North, and in doing so would cross a cut-off loop of the Gulf Stream (these are common) with a lot of deep seated warm water wit a lot of hurricane potential energy. So it stood a ver good chance of not just hitting New Orleans, but also being a very strong storm. So when mosted peole had not even realized anymore than there was Hurricane sitting way out in the Gulf, I posted an a different forum that "Katrina is getting really scary". It was before the NHC actually posted it, and days before people realized this could be the one New Orleans had been dreading. It didn't take much in the way of smarts to be ahead of the curve, just access to much more data than most folks had. And the NHC is funny, but they tend to err on the side of not panicking too many people too early (or occasionally the opposite--and they catch hell for that), and if people had paid attention to that and their own situation, their warnings would have been fine.

And sometimes Hurricanes do things that they don't look to most people that they will. Harvey was headed straight for us but the detailed predictions had it making a 90 degree right turn just far enough offshore to spare us anything but a little wind and rain, no big deal. The NHC gives you a cone, so it might have come close enough to pop us pretty good, but the additional data made that very unlikely. My daughter wanted me to evacuate, but I took reasonable precautions like extra spring lines on my boat, cranking down my hurricane shutters,and putting the deck furniture in he garage. Then I comfortably slept right through Harvey's turn north in my own bed. Every summer I made sure I had water, fresh gasoline for the generator, fresh batteries, etc. so I wasn't running around at the last minute.
 
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padrehorn11

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The unusual thing is this storm is starting out on land over the US then backtracking into the Gulf.

Or at least to along the coast. That’s the biggest question, whether it gets out over the water and stays there long enough to organize. Euro model says yes, GFS generally says no, or if if it does would be very weak.

My best guess right now is between the two, rolling along or just south of the coast, and going into LA as a mid level tropical storm with lots of rain.
Your guess on the track matches pretty closely with the four day GFS model which has changed significantly to match the Euro in recent runs.It's still too far in the future to strongly buy completely into any model though, especially about intensity. But the convergence of the models adds significantly to the likelihood of your guess.

The closeness to the coast should keep it from developing too much or going too far west. But the key will be how far offshore the Center of Circulation forms, and that's hard to pinpoint at this point. A relative small difference in that can change everything a good bit. If it forms fairly near shore, the Louisiana strike of a Tropical storm will almost certainly be the result, but it could possibly, but not I real likely, form the center farther offshore and then the odds for a Texas strike of a stronger hurricane are very good, given the upper air picture.

We'll see. It's interesting,

 

JG

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Your guess on the track matches pretty closely with the four day GFS model which has changed significantly to match the Euro in recent runs.It's still too far in the future to strongly buy completely into any model though, especially about intensity. But the convergence of the models adds significantly to the likelihood of your guess.

The closeness to the coast should keep it from developing too much or going too far west. But the key will be how far offshore the Center of Circulation forms, and that's hard to pinpoint at this point. A relative small difference in that can change everything a good bit. If it forms fairly near shore, the Louisiana strike of a Tropical storm will almost certainly be the result, but it could possibly, but not I real likely, form the center farther offshore and then the odds for a Texas strike of a stronger hurricane are very good, given the upper air picture.

We'll see. It's interesting,

Someone else I can geek out about storm forecasting with...
 

hager41

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I’m headed to the Florida panhandle for vacation on Saturday. Should I be concerned that my vacation will be a complete rainout?
 

ATX_Horn

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I’m headed to the Florida panhandle for vacation on Saturday. Should I be concerned that my vacation will be a complete rainout?
That's a good bet depending on how quickly west this storm moves. I'm in Pensacola and the forecast looks like definitely windy and rainy on Fri. and a coin flip for Sat/Sun.
It may not be as bad as the current forecast and the further east you're headed the better off you might be. Where are you headed?
 
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hager41

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That's a good bet depending on how quickly west this storm moves. I'm in Pensacola and the forecast looks like definitely windy and rainy on Fri. and a coin flip for Sat/Sun.
It may not be as bad as the current forecast and the further east you're headed the better off you might be. Where are you headed?

Headed to Panama City Beach from Saturday to Saturday. Do they expect it to clear that area by Sunday or so?
 

padrehorn11

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work is forecasting it to hit Louisiana, everything should be cleared out by end of the weekend
the CoC formed pretty near the coast so around New Orleans looks likely, but the precise landfall probably won't matter much. How fast it moves is more important and right now it's slow. It looks like the big impact of this storm will be very widespread heavy rain. New Orleans has already received a good bit and there is a significant street flooding there this am. I'm sure they are hoping that whatever it does it does it fast.
 
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padrehorn11

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Looks like a hard rain gonna fall. It wouldn't be a surprise to me if the track moved a little west and more rainfall in La. and East Texas, nothing I'd want to bet on though other than South Louisiana is going to get a lot of rain.
43380
 

padrehorn11

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Looks like Barry may reach minimal Hurricane strength. If it moves further west it will strengthen more and Houston will get more rain. Houston folks should be ready for the possibility of significant rainfall and some wind. Or maybe not, but I wouldn't bet on Saturday as a nice day for picnic. Although I imagine the 'surfers' will be on the beach Saturday.
43387
 
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padrehorn11

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Yup. At least Houston's on the edge and on the 'dry' side of the storm. Though 'dry' side may be pretty wet with this storm and all the factors, including I think the ground around Houston is fairly wet, at present, no?

What the upper level high and the trough up in the Great Lakes do are big factors now, as SST's and shear are favorable for development into a decent size storm if it stays over water all the way to Houston. No sign yet of anything like Harvey thank goodness, and since that was such a rare confluence of factors... but for all the advances in forecasting accuracy, they still show the effects small factors can have on numerical models. I don't trust hurricanes till they are gone. Fortunately now that I live in West Texas, I can be more dispassionate about them than when I could almost spit from my back door into the Laguna Madre.
 
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padrehorn11

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The top of the levees is right at 20 feet. The bad combination is, moderate storm surge for CAT 1 hurricane with a long period of onshore wind, the River is running high from spring rains in the midwest ,and a full moon high tide which is a foot to a foot and a half above average water level. This could be the highest crest of the Mississipi since 1927 and New Orleans has subsided a lot since then. If I lived in New Orleans I'd take a long weekend and take a long weekend somewhere drier.
43390
New Orleans this morning:
43391
 

JG

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Really did not help the situation that NO had almost ten inches of rain today.

This thing has potential to test the improved drainage system they put on after Katrina.
 
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Jdhmills

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since NOLA is basically one massive sewer doesn't take much to flood that armpit
 

TOK2000

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Latest I saw is that the Mississippi River to crest near 20' at NOLA, and the average levee height is 20'. This thing is going to be a rainmaker.
 

JG

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Uh oh...new HWRF shows the storm taking a larger curve, getting stronger.

Shows it taking a near-Katrina track just east of NOLA, making landfall as a Cat 2 with about 105 mph winds.

The ONLY good thing there would be that the heaviest rain stays east of NO.
 

TEXBTP

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Uh oh...new HWRF shows the storm taking a larger curve, getting stronger.

Shows it taking a near-Katrina track just east of NOLA, making landfall as a Cat 2 with about 105 mph winds.

The ONLY good thing there would be that the heaviest rain stays east of NO.
Does that mean I shouldn’t go to Galveston this Saturday? I’ve been looking forward to that since last week.
 

JG

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Does that mean I shouldn’t go to Galveston this Saturday? I’ve been looking forward to that since last week.

Probly ok but keep an eye on the forecast.
 

TOK2000

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Looks like Louisiana is going to get it, Click2houston weather has the cone completely missing the Houston Area. We'll probably get some rain though this weekend.
 

JG

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Officially named...TS Barry, winds 40 mph.
 

TEXBTP

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Looks like Louisiana is going to get it, Click2houston weather has the cone completely missing the Houston Area. We'll probably get some rain though this weekend.
I guess that’s good news for my trip to Galveston.
 

padrehorn11

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I guess that’s good news for my trip to Galveston.
The folks in New Orleans are glad about that I'm sure... ;) I know what you meant and you'e hoping it's not so bad for them.

That's the bad part of these things, I came to realize living right on the Coast. Someone's going to get it, and you're hoping it's someone else, so there's a little guilt tripping involved...at least there was for me. Of course I could hope they'd hit Kennedy County and the King Ranch are where almost no one lives and is a huge. But I was really glad when Harvey turned north and missed us, though that meant it would hit the Coastal Bend and north of there. Of course if it hadn't turned north, it might have shot straight over us fairly rapidly and we wouldn't have suffered near the damage, but still...these are, to some extent anyway, always two-edged swords.
 

JG

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The folks in New Orleans are glad about that I'm sure... ;) I know what you meant and you'e hoping it's not so bad for them.

That's the bad part of these things, I came to realize living right on the Coast. Someone's going to get it, and you're hoping it's someone else, so there's a little guilt tripping involved...at least there was for me. Of course I could hope they'd hit Kennedy County and the King Ranch are where almost no one lives and is a huge. But I was really glad when Harvey turned north and missed us, though that meant it would hit the Coastal Bend and north of there. Of course if it hadn't turned north, it might have shot straight over us fairly rapidly and we wouldn't have suffered near the damage, but still...these are, to some extent anyway, always two-edged swords.
Remember Hurricane Brett in 99? Cat 4 that did just that, hitting the King Ranch. Probly the only place on the entire Easter seaboard where you can put a Cat 4 do little or no damage.
 
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JG

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Latest models backing off the intensity a bit, but now back to a slow crawl right over NO.

HWRF shows peak winds of 70 mph.

But the Euro shows that between 6 pm tomorrow night and midnight Saturday/Sunday (36 hours), NO will get 15” of rain. Ouch.
 
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hager41

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Latest models backing off the intensity a bit, but now back to a slow crawl right over NO.

HWRF shows peak winds of 70 mph.

But the Euro shows that between 6 pm tomorrow night and midnight Saturday/Sunday (36 hours), NO will get 15” of rain. Ouch.

Thank you for the updates—much appreciated!
 

cctxfan

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Latest models backing off the intensity a bit, but now back to a slow crawl right over NO.

HWRF shows peak winds of 70 mph.

But the Euro shows that between 6 pm tomorrow night and midnight Saturday/Sunday (36 hours), NO will get 15” of rain. Ouch.
Add this to the flooding going on and some folks are thinking the MS River might get to a level not seen since 1950. Ouch indeed.