Over the past three years the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex averaged 112 FBS signees per recruiting class. That number would put the DFW Metroplex above the state of Ohio, who produced an average of 106 FBS signees during the same three-year period. DFW alone would rank as the 5th best "state" in the country when it comes to FBS talent production over that timeframe.
Simply put, in a state that produces high level football prospects better than any other, Dallas takes the regional crown for having the most talent to be scouted. Houston is close behind with an average of 99.3 FBS signees during the same period.
I wanted to find out which schools and areas in the metroplex did the best job of producing D1 talent within a four-year sample size. In addition to examining their track records, I also wanted to see how the respective prospect conveyor belts were shaping up in the 2022 season. Therefore, I made the call to use the 2019-2021 recruiting classes in addition to the 2022 class which is sure to fluctuate on a school by school basis as we learn more about this crop of rising seniors.
Another reason I used a four-year window to measure success was to ensure that the rankings actively were reflecting the volatile shifts in the HS to D1 pipeline based on new coaching hires, demographic shifts, school district rezoning, and dry stretches/surges by random schools.
I wanted the point system I used to measure schools in this exercise to be fairly simple so I decided to give 1 point for each confirmed FBS signee, 1 point for a 2022 player with a 247 composite rating and P5 offer, and .8 points for each 2022 prospect with a FBS offer that wasn't ranked.
For example if we used the 2016-2019 window, Sachse would have been No. 3 with a score of 15.4, now the Mustangs are tied for 34th in the DFW area during this 2019-2022 window with a score of 4. This score along with increased scores of Garland and Garland Lakeview Centennial help show us how the talent in Garland ISD is being distributed evenly across the area instead of being hoarded at Sachse.
On the flip side Red Oak is right outside the top 15 this year with a score of 6, while the 2016-2019 cycle would have seen them get a score of 0. This coincides with legendary TXHSFB coach Chris Ross taking over Red Oak in 2018. In the four years prior to Ross arriving, Red Oak was 5-35 and in the two years Ross spent at Red Oak the Hawks went 20-4 and are on their way to establishing themselves among the giants in South Dallas.
Speaking of South Dallas, after doing this research it's clear the best talent in the region resides on the southside. Six of the 11 schools listed are located in South Dallas, including a remarkable four of the top five. With Red Oak on the rise don't be surprised if next year's list has seven or more South Dallas squads represented.
In total I checked 61 high schools across the DFW area that I felt had a chance to potentially crack the top 20 to make sure I was doing my due diligence, but no matter how many schools I check I'm sure eventually during this series I'll miss one simply because of how many great programs there are across Texas.
While I considered weighting the score to give more points to schools that produced higher level talent, I wanted to stick with the "factory" analogy at the end of the day and reward whoever was able to get the most dudes off the assembly belt and onto the next level. If you have any suggestions for this extremely arbitrary ranking system, hop in the DM and let me know what you think.
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T10. South Grand Prairie Warriors
SGP might be a surprise addition to casual fans of TXHSFB considering the Warriors haven't made it past the 2nd round of the playoffs since 1999. However SGP has a proven track record of producing D1 talent, most notably 2000 5 star WR BJ Johnson and 2017 5 star CB Jeff Okudah. South Grand Prairie's HC job is currently open after former HC Brent Whitson left for Denison, making this one of the most coveted jobs available in the state.
T10. Frisco Lone Star Rangers
When Jeff Rayburn took over the Lone Star Rangers in 2013, the school was in it's 4th year of existence and had a record of 11-20 on the football field. Since then the Rangers are 82-22 including a state title game appearance in 2015. The uptick in success on the field along with demographic shifts in Frisco have resulted in the Rangers bursting onto the recruiting scene. 2020 WR Marvin Mims was recently ranked the No. 6 returning WR in the country per PFF College.
9. Denton Ryan Raiders
Fresh off of a 5AD1 state title in 2020, the Denton Ryan Raiders now boast a remarkable 72-4 record in the past 5 years. Of the 11 schools on this list Denton Ryan is also the most likely of any to capture a state championship in 2021. 2020 ATH Drew Sanders and 2021 ATH Ja'Tavion Sanders give Denton Ryan the sole lead in five-star prospects during this four-year window. The lack of a FBS signee in 2019 hampered Denton Ryan in these (arbitrary) rankings, but make no mistake, the Raiders will climb in next year's edition of this series led by 2023 blue chip ILB Anthony HIll.
8. Denton Guyer Wildcats
Denton Guyer shared the same misfortune as their cross-town rival of not having a FBS signee in the 2019 class, but the Wildcats more than made up for it with four Power 5 signees in the 2020 class alone. Guyer will have to rebuild quickly after losing 10 D1 signees in the past two seasons, but a solid 2022 class plus a 2023 safety duo with multiple P5 offers already signal that the Guyer pipeline isn't going away anytime soon.
T6. Dallas South Oak Cliff Golden Bears
SOC Head Coach Jason Todd is one of the most criminally underrated HC's in TXHSFB. The Reginald Samples disciple is 55-18 in his six years at the helm of SOC, including an 11-1 record in the 2018 season where the lone loss was a 28-14 playoff game to eventual state champ Aledo. SOC is by far the smallest school (1,285 enrollment) on this list and is shockingly close to the 4A enrollment cutoff number of 1,227. Even with the disadvantages of small numbers and limited funding from DISD, South Oak Cliff still looks on pace to average 10+ FBS signees over this four-year cycle making them my No. 1 pound-for-pound Prospect Factory in DFW.
T6. Allen Eagles
From the smallest school on the list in SOC to the biggest high school in the state in Allen (6,959). The 2010's were the decade of Allen in TXHSFB. Four 6A State Titles, the Kyler Murray experience, No. 1 recruit in the nation Greg Little, and the construction of a $60 Million, 18,000-person capacity Allen Eagle Stadium in 2012 garnered national headlines. In recent years the Eagles have looked a bit off, losing in the 3rd round and 2nd round of the playoffs in back-to-back years along with the 2020 class not having a P5 signee. While 98 percent of programs would look at Allen's past two seasons as "first world problems", the mini slump is still notable. 2022 OL Neto Umeozulu is still criminally underrated by recruiting services, and should see his stock continue to rise as we get closer to NSD.
5. Lancaster Tigers
Lancaster is currently the best job open in Texas. The 5A school borders on the Division I/Division II divide with 2,105 students and boasts one of the best athletic departments in the state with elite basketball and track teams. Former HC Chris Gilbert left Lancaster for an off field role at the University of Texas, but before he left for the next level he completely elevated the expectations and ceiling for the Tigers. During Gilbert's tenure Lancaster made their first ever state title appearance and won an outright district title for the first time since 1960. While Gilbert's school record 88 wins might not be topped by the next HC, whoever it is has a great opportunity to compete for playoff success with very talented athletes. 2022 WR Stephon Johnson continues to pick up major P5 offers, including recent opportunities from USC and Oregon.
4. DeSoto Eagles
DeSoto's seven FBS signees in the 2021 class will tie them with local rival Duncanville for top honors in the state in 2021, and the nine P5 signees gives them the most in the Metroplex during this period. By all indications "DeSoto U" is a few more 2022 kids getting offered away from the No. 2 spot on this list, having as many FBS signees as Beltline rival Cedar Hill (13) from 2019-2021. 2023 WR Johntay Cook is DeSoto's highly sought after underclassman with offers from Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma.
3. Southlake Carroll Dragons
If you're a TXHSFB novice, before you read anything else take a moment to familiarize yourself with one of the most iconic state championship matchups in recent memory. Riley Dodge has done a tremendous job in a short amount of time getting Carroll back to the elite category where they belong, including a herculean effort by the entire coaching staff to get the Dragons to the 2020 6AD1 Title game with only 3 returning starters from the previous year. While the No. 1 player in the country for 2022 QB Quinn Ewers gets the majority of the headlines for the Dragons, the primary reason SLC is in the top 3 of these rankings is the 2020 class which was tied with Alvin Shadow Creek for top marks in the state with six FBS signees (I gave Cinque Williams .25 as a way to acknowledge he was a longtime Hawaii commit, without changing the rankings).
2. Cedar Hill Longhorns
Cedar Hill's 2020 6AD2 State Runner-up season was the best for the ‘Horns since architect of the TTHL mantra, Joey McGuire, left for the college ranks. The Longhorns are one of the more consistent producers of talent across the state of Texas and their score could see an uptick after Deion Sanders left Trinity Christian-Cedar Hill (TCCH's score using this point system was only a 7 even with the ability to openly recruit). 2023 QB Cedric Harden Jr. looks like the next starting QB for CH, and has a great chance to join the ranks of former Longhorn QBs Avery Davis, Kaidon Salter, and Justin McMillan at the next level.
1. Duncanville Panthers
It's hard to believe that this upcoming season will be Reginald Samples' 7th year at Duncanville. Samples is known as “The Godfather” in DFW and for good reason. In stops at Dallas Lincoln, Dallas Skyline, and now Duncanville, Coach Samples has a 298-85 record with multiple title game appearances. He also developed a coaching tree that rivals any other active coach in TXHSFB. In a short time Duncanville went from a school that hadn’t won a district title since 2002 to a state title contending squad that puts so many kids into college football that they decided to self stylize the program as “D1ville.” Duncanville’s 24.6 score and their potential trajectory in these rankings can be contextualized in comparison to Georgia blue blood Grayson HS, who registered a score of 23.2 led by a 2019 class that had 12 FBS signees. D1ville ain’t going anywhere, anytime soon.
Honorable Mention:
12. Aledo-8.8
13. Dallas Skyline-8
14. Frisco Reedy-8
15. Arlington Martin-7
16. Highland Park-6.8
Pound4Pound Honorable Mention:
1. 3AD1 Brock-5.8!!
2. 4AD1 Argyle-6
3. 4AD1 Midlothian Heritage-3
4. 4AD1 Melissa-2.8
5. 4AD2 Celina-2
Simply put, in a state that produces high level football prospects better than any other, Dallas takes the regional crown for having the most talent to be scouted. Houston is close behind with an average of 99.3 FBS signees during the same period.
I wanted to find out which schools and areas in the metroplex did the best job of producing D1 talent within a four-year sample size. In addition to examining their track records, I also wanted to see how the respective prospect conveyor belts were shaping up in the 2022 season. Therefore, I made the call to use the 2019-2021 recruiting classes in addition to the 2022 class which is sure to fluctuate on a school by school basis as we learn more about this crop of rising seniors.
Another reason I used a four-year window to measure success was to ensure that the rankings actively were reflecting the volatile shifts in the HS to D1 pipeline based on new coaching hires, demographic shifts, school district rezoning, and dry stretches/surges by random schools.
I wanted the point system I used to measure schools in this exercise to be fairly simple so I decided to give 1 point for each confirmed FBS signee, 1 point for a 2022 player with a 247 composite rating and P5 offer, and .8 points for each 2022 prospect with a FBS offer that wasn't ranked.
For example if we used the 2016-2019 window, Sachse would have been No. 3 with a score of 15.4, now the Mustangs are tied for 34th in the DFW area during this 2019-2022 window with a score of 4. This score along with increased scores of Garland and Garland Lakeview Centennial help show us how the talent in Garland ISD is being distributed evenly across the area instead of being hoarded at Sachse.
On the flip side Red Oak is right outside the top 15 this year with a score of 6, while the 2016-2019 cycle would have seen them get a score of 0. This coincides with legendary TXHSFB coach Chris Ross taking over Red Oak in 2018. In the four years prior to Ross arriving, Red Oak was 5-35 and in the two years Ross spent at Red Oak the Hawks went 20-4 and are on their way to establishing themselves among the giants in South Dallas.
Speaking of South Dallas, after doing this research it's clear the best talent in the region resides on the southside. Six of the 11 schools listed are located in South Dallas, including a remarkable four of the top five. With Red Oak on the rise don't be surprised if next year's list has seven or more South Dallas squads represented.
In total I checked 61 high schools across the DFW area that I felt had a chance to potentially crack the top 20 to make sure I was doing my due diligence, but no matter how many schools I check I'm sure eventually during this series I'll miss one simply because of how many great programs there are across Texas.
While I considered weighting the score to give more points to schools that produced higher level talent, I wanted to stick with the "factory" analogy at the end of the day and reward whoever was able to get the most dudes off the assembly belt and onto the next level. If you have any suggestions for this extremely arbitrary ranking system, hop in the DM and let me know what you think.
####
T10. South Grand Prairie Warriors
SGP might be a surprise addition to casual fans of TXHSFB considering the Warriors haven't made it past the 2nd round of the playoffs since 1999. However SGP has a proven track record of producing D1 talent, most notably 2000 5 star WR BJ Johnson and 2017 5 star CB Jeff Okudah. South Grand Prairie's HC job is currently open after former HC Brent Whitson left for Denison, making this one of the most coveted jobs available in the state.
T10. Frisco Lone Star Rangers
When Jeff Rayburn took over the Lone Star Rangers in 2013, the school was in it's 4th year of existence and had a record of 11-20 on the football field. Since then the Rangers are 82-22 including a state title game appearance in 2015. The uptick in success on the field along with demographic shifts in Frisco have resulted in the Rangers bursting onto the recruiting scene. 2020 WR Marvin Mims was recently ranked the No. 6 returning WR in the country per PFF College.
9. Denton Ryan Raiders
Fresh off of a 5AD1 state title in 2020, the Denton Ryan Raiders now boast a remarkable 72-4 record in the past 5 years. Of the 11 schools on this list Denton Ryan is also the most likely of any to capture a state championship in 2021. 2020 ATH Drew Sanders and 2021 ATH Ja'Tavion Sanders give Denton Ryan the sole lead in five-star prospects during this four-year window. The lack of a FBS signee in 2019 hampered Denton Ryan in these (arbitrary) rankings, but make no mistake, the Raiders will climb in next year's edition of this series led by 2023 blue chip ILB Anthony HIll.
8. Denton Guyer Wildcats
Denton Guyer shared the same misfortune as their cross-town rival of not having a FBS signee in the 2019 class, but the Wildcats more than made up for it with four Power 5 signees in the 2020 class alone. Guyer will have to rebuild quickly after losing 10 D1 signees in the past two seasons, but a solid 2022 class plus a 2023 safety duo with multiple P5 offers already signal that the Guyer pipeline isn't going away anytime soon.
T6. Dallas South Oak Cliff Golden Bears
SOC Head Coach Jason Todd is one of the most criminally underrated HC's in TXHSFB. The Reginald Samples disciple is 55-18 in his six years at the helm of SOC, including an 11-1 record in the 2018 season where the lone loss was a 28-14 playoff game to eventual state champ Aledo. SOC is by far the smallest school (1,285 enrollment) on this list and is shockingly close to the 4A enrollment cutoff number of 1,227. Even with the disadvantages of small numbers and limited funding from DISD, South Oak Cliff still looks on pace to average 10+ FBS signees over this four-year cycle making them my No. 1 pound-for-pound Prospect Factory in DFW.
T6. Allen Eagles
From the smallest school on the list in SOC to the biggest high school in the state in Allen (6,959). The 2010's were the decade of Allen in TXHSFB. Four 6A State Titles, the Kyler Murray experience, No. 1 recruit in the nation Greg Little, and the construction of a $60 Million, 18,000-person capacity Allen Eagle Stadium in 2012 garnered national headlines. In recent years the Eagles have looked a bit off, losing in the 3rd round and 2nd round of the playoffs in back-to-back years along with the 2020 class not having a P5 signee. While 98 percent of programs would look at Allen's past two seasons as "first world problems", the mini slump is still notable. 2022 OL Neto Umeozulu is still criminally underrated by recruiting services, and should see his stock continue to rise as we get closer to NSD.
5. Lancaster Tigers
Lancaster is currently the best job open in Texas. The 5A school borders on the Division I/Division II divide with 2,105 students and boasts one of the best athletic departments in the state with elite basketball and track teams. Former HC Chris Gilbert left Lancaster for an off field role at the University of Texas, but before he left for the next level he completely elevated the expectations and ceiling for the Tigers. During Gilbert's tenure Lancaster made their first ever state title appearance and won an outright district title for the first time since 1960. While Gilbert's school record 88 wins might not be topped by the next HC, whoever it is has a great opportunity to compete for playoff success with very talented athletes. 2022 WR Stephon Johnson continues to pick up major P5 offers, including recent opportunities from USC and Oregon.
4. DeSoto Eagles
DeSoto's seven FBS signees in the 2021 class will tie them with local rival Duncanville for top honors in the state in 2021, and the nine P5 signees gives them the most in the Metroplex during this period. By all indications "DeSoto U" is a few more 2022 kids getting offered away from the No. 2 spot on this list, having as many FBS signees as Beltline rival Cedar Hill (13) from 2019-2021. 2023 WR Johntay Cook is DeSoto's highly sought after underclassman with offers from Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma.
3. Southlake Carroll Dragons
If you're a TXHSFB novice, before you read anything else take a moment to familiarize yourself with one of the most iconic state championship matchups in recent memory. Riley Dodge has done a tremendous job in a short amount of time getting Carroll back to the elite category where they belong, including a herculean effort by the entire coaching staff to get the Dragons to the 2020 6AD1 Title game with only 3 returning starters from the previous year. While the No. 1 player in the country for 2022 QB Quinn Ewers gets the majority of the headlines for the Dragons, the primary reason SLC is in the top 3 of these rankings is the 2020 class which was tied with Alvin Shadow Creek for top marks in the state with six FBS signees (I gave Cinque Williams .25 as a way to acknowledge he was a longtime Hawaii commit, without changing the rankings).
2. Cedar Hill Longhorns
Cedar Hill's 2020 6AD2 State Runner-up season was the best for the ‘Horns since architect of the TTHL mantra, Joey McGuire, left for the college ranks. The Longhorns are one of the more consistent producers of talent across the state of Texas and their score could see an uptick after Deion Sanders left Trinity Christian-Cedar Hill (TCCH's score using this point system was only a 7 even with the ability to openly recruit). 2023 QB Cedric Harden Jr. looks like the next starting QB for CH, and has a great chance to join the ranks of former Longhorn QBs Avery Davis, Kaidon Salter, and Justin McMillan at the next level.
1. Duncanville Panthers
It's hard to believe that this upcoming season will be Reginald Samples' 7th year at Duncanville. Samples is known as “The Godfather” in DFW and for good reason. In stops at Dallas Lincoln, Dallas Skyline, and now Duncanville, Coach Samples has a 298-85 record with multiple title game appearances. He also developed a coaching tree that rivals any other active coach in TXHSFB. In a short time Duncanville went from a school that hadn’t won a district title since 2002 to a state title contending squad that puts so many kids into college football that they decided to self stylize the program as “D1ville.” Duncanville’s 24.6 score and their potential trajectory in these rankings can be contextualized in comparison to Georgia blue blood Grayson HS, who registered a score of 23.2 led by a 2019 class that had 12 FBS signees. D1ville ain’t going anywhere, anytime soon.
Honorable Mention:
12. Aledo-8.8
13. Dallas Skyline-8
14. Frisco Reedy-8
15. Arlington Martin-7
16. Highland Park-6.8
Pound4Pound Honorable Mention:
1. 3AD1 Brock-5.8!!
2. 4AD1 Argyle-6
3. 4AD1 Midlothian Heritage-3
4. 4AD1 Melissa-2.8
5. 4AD2 Celina-2
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