Ranking Big 12 QBs

apl817

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Let's here your way too early QB rankings in the league.

Baylor, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia all have QB battles incoming. Kansas State, OSU, TCU, Iowa State, OU will be set.
 

tglover13

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1. Spencer Rattler - Hate to say it but with a year of experience under his belt, Rattler is gonna be pretty pretty good. Like, real good. Gotta respect his game. Still sucks though.
2. Casey Thompson - All conjecture, but based on what we've seen and what we're getting, I think Thompson's game is gonna explode. I think his experience and leadership beats out the raw talent of Card, at least for a year. Really excited to see him in Sark's offense.
3. Brock Purdy - He's solid. More than solid. The fact that I have him 3rd on this list is really a testament to the level of QB play and talent in the Big12. I think he'll have a much better year in 2021 than he did in 2020. Which is a little scary.
4. Jarret Doege - Surprised? Me too. But Doege had a pretty good year last year and I think he has a lot of potential. He can really zip it.
5. Skylar Thompson - Was solid last year until he got hurt. Decent runner with a good arm. Good enough for what K-State does. I think he'll play really well in their system. High effort. Gonna ball out for his senior year.
6. Spencer Sanders - I've always thought that he was a top tier QB in the Big12 but every time I watch him play that doesn't seem to be the case. Tylan Wallace was their whole passing game. Sanders is a great runner but he's just too inconsistent as a passer and doesn't seem to have improved a ton. Also, my wife doesn't like him cause he cheated on one of her friends in high school. So he gets 6th place.
7. Max Duggan - I thought about switching him and Sanders but even though he's a cheater I think Sanders has an edge. Duggan still needs some work but I've always thought he had a lot of potential. Seemed like he started to really get the passing game going late last year, even if it meant throwing to Johnston every time. For 7th place, still a solid QB. Big 12 is gonna be good next year.
8. Alan Bowman - I don't know what it is but Bowman looked like he was gonna be elite for a year or two and then looked totally subpar last year. Hard to tell what kind of year he's going to have. Maybe it's the system Wells is implementing. No idea. But color me unimpressed.
9. Jacob Zeno - I think Zeno wins the job over Bohanon. That's based on like two plays from the Big12 Championship game back in 2019. I really have no idea. Good luck Baylor.
10. Whoever Kansas' QB is - they suck.

I will look back on this in a year and probably be wrong.
 
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longhorn clayton

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You've got to put Spencer #1.

He had his ups and downs throughout his first year as a starter, but the talent is readily apparent and he's in an environment that' will nurture and grow that talent. I expect him to make a big leap this season from last.

Although Brock Purdy is far from perfect, his experience and resume makes him my #2 prior to the season starting.

I think Card will beat Thompson. He's got the better arm, accuracy, touch, release, and footwork. Casey was fantastic in the bowl game and showed a lot of promise, so I am not calling him a scrub by any means. Heck, he looks like he could be a better version of Spencer Sanders. But for what Sark likes to do offensively, I feel like Hudson is gonna end up being the guy, and Casey will go somewhere else and be very solid. So my pre-season rankings go

1. Spencer Rattler

2. Brock Purdy

3. Hudson Card

4-10, wait for them to separate. I thought Bowman looked super talented as a fish but he's had a ton of injuries and looks like he's regressed. Doege was decent last year. Skylar Thompson looks like your typical annoying KSU QB that'll have some career days when he plays us. I think Duggan has potential but don't think he will be developed like he should


Hopefully by the end of the season we'll be talking about Hudson at #2 and nipping at Spencer's heels. With his natural throwing abilities I think the ceiling is sky high for him in Sark's offense
 
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apl817

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I find it hard to believe that Thompson/Card are going to come in and immediately be in top 4.
 

kevinbelt

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Seems pretty reasonable to me as an outsider. I don't really know anything about either of them other than watching Thompson in the bowl game, but whoever wins the job will have a system that should make them look good and a decent supporting cast. Aside from Rattler and maaaybe Purdy, none of the other QBs in the Big XII are really elite. Skyler Thompson is effective but not game-changing, and I wouldn't rank Doege as high as the OP did. So for me, it's really a question of whether whichever one of them starts can be better than Sanders or Duggan, and it's pretty easy for me to see scenarios in which that would be the case.
 
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apl817

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I'd probably go:

1. Rattler
2. Purdy
3. Sanders
4. Duggan
5. Skylar Thompson
6. Casey Thompson
7. WVU QB
8. TTU QB
9. Baylor QB
10. KU QB

Sanders and Duggan are interchangeable. Skylar Thompson has upside that has a ceiling of Charlie Brewer from first 8 games in 2019. I'd say it's most likely given the talent and scheme that WVU QB comes out on top of the others from 7-10. There aren't any QBs on the roster that can run a fast break offense like they want to at Baylor.
 

tglover13

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I'd probably go:

1. Rattler
2. Purdy
3. Sanders
4. Duggan
5. Skylar Thompson
6. Casey Thompson
7. WVU QB
8. TTU QB
9. Baylor QB
10. KU QB

Sanders and Duggan are interchangeable. Skylar Thompson has upside that has a ceiling of Charlie Brewer from first 8 games in 2019. I'd say it's most likely given the talent and scheme that WVU QB comes out on top of the others from 7-10. There aren't any QBs on the roster that can run a fast break offense like they want to at Baylor.
You crazy if you think Skylar Thompson, Duggan, and Sanders are all better than Casey Thompson in Sark’s offense. I know we haven’t seen anything yet but cmon...SKYLAR THOMPSON?!?!?! Ain’t no way.
 
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malaise

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You crazy if you think Skylar Thompson, Duggan, and Sanders are all better than Casey Thompson in Sark’s offense. I know we haven’t seen anything yet but cmon...SKYLAR THOMPSON?!?!?! Ain’t no way.
Thompson is pretty good esp in that offense dude.

rattler
Purdy
Sanders
S Thompson
Whoever our guy is
Duggan
The rest.

also bowman portaled. Maybe mav mcivor time BAYBAY! I don’t think behren will go as a frosh.
 
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keganr

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Rattler

Purdy

Thompson
Sanders
Duggan
(Texas QB)
Doege
Daniels (Kansas)

Then whoever Baylor and Tech have
 

tglover13

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Thompson is pretty good esp in that offense dude.

rattler
Purdy
Sanders
S Thompson
Whoever our guy is
Duggan
The rest.

also bowman portaled. Maybe mav mcivor time BAYBAY! I don’t think behren will go as a frosh.
Casey Thompson has way too much talent in a great offensive scheme to be put below Skylar Thompson, Spencer Sanders and Duggan. That’s just the way I see it. I guess I’m optimistic.
 

Abe Lemons

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If Card is QB1, would Casey portal before the first game (is that even possible these days)?

Any chance Card leaves if Casey is QB1, and when?

Both Tech and Baylor’s QB situations are too hard to predict. I think Tech has more quality options; Baylor’s will probably be poor at QB for 1-2 years.

Sanders at OSU: probably drives Gundy nuts with combination of flashes of wow with do-too-much-hero-ball-decisions.
 

stilesbbq

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Thompson is pretty good esp in that offense dude.

rattler
Purdy
Sanders
S Thompson
Whoever our guy is
Duggan
The rest.

also bowman portaled. Maybe mav mcivor time BAYBAY! I don’t think behren will go as a frosh.
Rattler

Purdy

Thompson
Sanders
Duggan
(Texas QB)
Doege
Daniels (Kansas)

Then whoever Baylor and Tech have
Would love to be proven wrong but to my naked eye Sanders looked pretty s*** this year and Wallace is gone now
 

keganr

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Would love to be proven wrong but to my naked eye Sanders looked pretty s*** this year and Wallace is gone now
Context: Sanders hasn't played football much the last two years. Missed much of fall camp this year. Only had one spring. Tools are there, just gotta get them to work.
 

apl817

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You crazy if you think Skylar Thompson, Duggan, and Sanders are all better than Casey Thompson in Sark’s offense. I know we haven’t seen anything yet but cmon...SKYLAR THOMPSON?!?!?! Ain’t no way.
Maybe. I think it's more likely there is a year of up and down play to get acclimated, especially given the increased quality of defense across the league. Both for Thompson or Card and for Sark. If that year is skipped they certainly could climb over the 3 mentioned.

Skylar Thompson has a low ceiling but almost no risk, seems likely to have 25ish total TDs and almost no turnovers. Duggan and Sanders are both equally as talented as Casey Thompson and more experienced.
 
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tglover13

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Maybe. I think it's more likely there is a year of up and down play to get acclimated, especially given the increased quality of defense across the league. Both for Thompson or Card and for Sark. If that year is skipped they certainly could climb over the 3 mentioned.

Skylar Thompson has a low ceiling but almost no risk, seems likely to have 25ish total TDs and almost no turnovers. Duggan and Sanders are both equally as talented as Casey Thompson and more experienced.
I agree with your first paragraph although I think Sark’s prestige will get us past the growing pains of the first year rather quickly. At least that’s what I hope.

I seriously doubt Sanders and Duggan are equally as talented as Thompson and definitely not Card. Just look at their high school careers. Look at their recruiting grades. Look at what Sanders and Duggan have done with their surrounding talent in college. Both pretty underwhelming. Thompson and Card are unproven but I would bet a lot of money that both have much higher ceilings than almost anyone in the Big12.
 

longhorn clayton

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I was a fan of sanders but he still throws bad reads and seems too turnover prone. If Casey can’t be better than Dugan or Skylar Thompson in the texas sark offense then he shouldn’t start.

Hudson is the guy Imo. He just is a more natural thrower and fits the offense. I think he could be a beast
 
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Ian Boyd

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Skylar Thompson has a low ceiling but almost no risk, seems likely to have 25ish total TDs and almost no turnovers. Duggan and Sanders are both equally as talented as Casey Thompson and more experienced.
Agree, and Duggan and Sanders are both more talented than Casey Thompson.

He's not a scrub but there's probably an assumption that because he's at Texas he's amongst the elite athletes at the position in the Big 12. He's probably comparable to Skylar Thompson as an athlete and arm without the experience or size. Perhaps a touch quicker but at 195 rather than 215 or wherever Thompson is.

Hudson Card though, he has more of an elite talent's toolbox. The question for him is to what extent he'll be able to put it together as a redshirt freshman.
 
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stilesbbq

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I agree with your first paragraph although I think Sark’s prestige will get us past the growing pains of the first year rather quickly. At least that’s what I hope.

I seriously doubt Sanders and Duggan are equally as talented as Thompson and definitely not Card. Just look at their high school careers. Look at their recruiting grades. Look at what Sanders and Duggan have done with their surrounding talent in college. Both pretty underwhelming. Thompson and Card are unproven but I would bet a lot of money that both have much higher ceilings than almost anyone in the Big12.
Watch the tape. Duggan and Sanders are both 4.5 guys (Duggan might be 4.4) with more years of experience starting than Casey. I think both have at least as strong an arm, Sanders has NFL quality arm talent imo

What'll differentiate them on the field this season is what is between their ears and how the guys on the headsets set them up to either fail or succeed
 
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Ian Boyd

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Watch the tape. Duggan and Sanders are both 4.5 guys (Duggan might be 4.4) with more years of experience starting than Casey. I think both have at least as strong an arm, Sanders has NFL quality arm talent imo

What'll differentiate them on the field this season is what is between their ears and how the guys on the headsets set them up to either fail or succeed
They're both bigger, stronger, faster Casey Thompsons with multiple years of starting experience in the Big 12.
 

gizzame

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  1. Rattler
  2. Skylar
  3. Duggan
  4. Sanders
  5. Purdy
  6. Texas QB
  7. Bowman
  8. Doege
  9. Baylor QB
  10. Kansas QB
 

sherf1

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Watch the tape. Duggan and Sanders are both 4.5 guys (Duggan might be 4.4) with more years of experience starting than Casey. I think both have at least as strong an arm, Sanders has NFL quality arm talent imo

What'll differentiate them on the field this season is what is between their ears and how the guys on the headsets set them up to either fail or succeed
I'm going to go on record as saying I do not believe Max Duggan is approximately as fast as Devin Duvernay, who ran 4.39 at the combine.

Everyone looks fast running up the middle of an open field, but he's probably a 4.7-4.8 dude realistically, which is more than fast enough in college. LJH put up 1,200 yards in 2018 with a 40 time befitting a defensive lineman.
 

sherf1

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They're both bigger, stronger, faster Casey Thompsons with multiple years of starting experience in the Big 12.
I have no clue if Casey or Card will be worth a damn, but I know for sure I am not scared of either Duggan or Skylar Thompson in any way. They're not bad players by any means, but if we're worried about getting out QB'ed by those guys things have gone horribly wrong in much bigger ways.

And before everyone gets up in arms about it, they have combined for precisely TWO 300+ yards passing games in their career (with another 299 yard one but screw you I'm not counting it). They're B- guys on a normal day who can get you a B+ performance once a season. That should not be the standard for us, although obviously year 1 will be a learning curve.
 
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tglover13

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I have no clue if Casey or Card will be worth a damn, but I know for sure I am not scared of either Duggan or Skylar Thompson in any way. They're not bad players by any means, but if we're worried about getting out QB'ed by those guys things have gone horribly wrong in much bigger ways.

And before everyone gets up in arms about it, they have combined for precisely TWO 300+ yards passing games in their career (with another 299 yard one but screw you I'm not counting it). They're B- guys on a normal day who can get you a B+ performance once a season. That should not be the standard for us, although obviously year 1 will be a learning curve.
Why I’m saying there’s no way they end up being better than Thompson or Card next season. If that actually happens, then we messed up big time.
 

tglover13

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Lol I love Casey but he can't do this
Duggan 2020 stats:
1795 pass yards, 10 TDs, 4 picks, 60%
526 rushing yds, 10 rushing TDs

Skylar Thompson 2019 stats (since he didn’t play this year):
2315 pass yards, 12 TDs, 5 picks, 59%
405 yards, 11 rushing TDs

I say chances are Casey Thompson or Hudson Card puts up way better numbers than those.
 
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tglover13

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Duggan 2020 stats:
1795 pass yards, 10 TDs, 4 picks, 60%
526 rushing yds, 10 rushing TDs

Skylar Thompson 2019 stats (since he didn’t play this year):
2315 pass yards, 12 TDs, 5 picks, 59%
405 yards, 11 rushing TDs

I say chances are Casey Thompson or Hudson Card puts up way better numbers than those.
Furthermore,
Spencer Sanders 2020 stats:
2007 pass yards, 14 TDs, 8 picks, 62%
269 rush yards, 2 TDs

I know he was hurt for some but still.Either of our guys are putting up better numbers.
 

Ian Boyd

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I have no clue if Casey or Card will be worth a damn, but I know for sure I am not scared of either Duggan or Skylar Thompson in any way. They're not bad players by any means, but if we're worried about getting out QB'ed by those guys things have gone horribly wrong in much bigger ways.

And before everyone gets up in arms about it, they have combined for precisely TWO 300+ yards passing games in their career (with another 299 yard one but screw you I'm not counting it). They're B- guys on a normal day who can get you a B+ performance once a season. That should not be the standard for us, although obviously year 1 will be a learning curve.
Texas is winless against Max Duggan and he's yet to take the field after a good, healthy offseason. Now he's about to have one with more consistent leadership over the offense, a vastly improved offensive line, and Quentin Johnston outside. Skylar Thompson is a pretty good player as well who will also finally enter a season with an improved offensive line and the chance to spend an offseason nailing down chemistry with a legit weapon outside in Malik Knowles (also Deuce Vaughn). These aren't minor matters for Texas. When Taylor Cornelius had a set like that he threw for just a shade under 4k yards and beat Texas 38-35 in their best season of the decade.

You're assuming these guys are going to be what they've been the last few years, which is not only dangerous but also very likely to be wrong. They'll both be third year players next season.
 

sherf1

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Texas is winless against Max Duggan and he's yet to take the field after a good, healthy offseason. Now he's about to have one with more consistent leadership over the offense, a vastly improved offensive line, and Quentin Johnston outside. Skylar Thompson is a pretty good player as well who will also finally enter a season with an improved offensive line and the chance to spend an offseason nailing down chemistry with a legit weapon outside in Malik Knowles (also Deuce Vaughn). These aren't minor matters for Texas. When Taylor Cornelius had a set like that he threw for just a shade under 4k yards and beat Texas 38-35 in their best season of the decade.

You're assuming these guys are going to be what they've been the last few years, which is not only dangerous but also very likely to be wrong. They'll both be third year players next season.
I mean yeah there's a reason the UT coach got fired.

I'll go on record now and say neither Duggan or Skylar hit 4K yards next year passing, or get particularly close. I'm not saying the teams/games overall are to be dismissed, but the most dangerous parts of playing TCU the last few years have been dealing with who is on the sideline (both of them, sadly), not the field.

Assuming consistent growth is also dangerous. Anyone watching Texas at the end of 2018 with sophomore Sam would have been very surprised to see how it ended two years later. Duggan may be primed for a jump after finally getting some continuity, we'll see. Thompson has been around the block, I doubt we see much sudden growth there, but his running ability always makes him dangerous.
 
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Ian Boyd

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I'll go on record now and say neither Duggan or Skylar hit 4K yards next year passing, or get particularly close. I'm not saying the teams/games overall are to be dismissed, but the most dangerous parts of playing TCU the last few years have been dealing with who is on the sideline (both of them, sadly), not the field.
The point is both could be very good, and it’s not enough to say “Texas has good coaches now and all other factors are consistent.” They do, but they aren’t.
Assuming consistent growth is also dangerous. Anyone watching Texas at the end of 2018 with sophomore Sam would have been very surprised to see how it ended two years later. Duggan may be primed for a jump after finally getting some continuity, we'll see. Thompson has been around the block, I doubt we see much sudden growth there, but his running ability always makes him dangerous.
2018 Ehlinger
3292 yards at 7.7 ypa, 25-5 TD/INT
2019 Ehlinger after losing LJH
3663 yards at 8.1 ypa, 32-10 TD/INT
2020 Ehlinger after losing Collin and Duve
2566 yards at 8.0 ypa, 26-5 TD/INT

Duggan in particular returns with an improved OL and gets his top wideouts back, most notably Quentin Johnston.

Skylar gets another year with this coaching staff, also gets a much better OL, and will have Malik Knowles finally ready to be a weapon outside.

It’s a bad bet to assume these guys won’t be dangerous. Ditto PFP with Xavier Hutchinson. QB/WR tandems get deadly over time, see Colt-Shipley.
 

stilesbbq

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Why I’m saying there’s no way they end up being better than Thompson or Card next season. If that actually happens, then we messed up big time.
Duggan 2020 stats:
1795 pass yards, 10 TDs, 4 picks, 60%
526 rushing yds, 10 rushing TDs

Skylar Thompson 2019 stats (since he didn’t play this year):
2315 pass yards, 12 TDs, 5 picks, 59%
405 yards, 11 rushing TDs

I say chances are Casey Thompson or Hudson Card puts up way better numbers than those.
My point was that Duggan and Sanders are both more physically gifted than Casey Thompson. Idk about Skylar but I think KSU will be well-coached and formidable next season.

Duggan ran a 4.58 as a high school junior and from watching him run away from Big12 defenders on 50+ yard runs I'm confident he is probably a little bit (maybe not sub 4.5) faster than that now. TCU's offense has been disorganized the past two years for reasons in and outside of Duggans control

Al that being said, I full expect UT to have the second best offense in the conference next year because of Sark and the talent around whoever is QB next year. I also just like Duggan and Sanders athletic ability
 
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Ian Boyd

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Duggan ran a 4.58 as a high school junior and from watching him run away from Big12 defenders on 50+ yard runs I'm confident he is probably a little bit (maybe not sub 4.5) faster than that now. TCU's offense has been disorganized the past two years for reasons in and outside of Duggans control
That time seems about right to me. A legit 4.6 guy is gone if he hits a crease.
Al that being said, I full expect UT to have the second best offense in the conference next year because of Sark and the talent around whoever is QB next year. I also just like Duggan and Sanders athletic ability
I’m not as pessimistic as @keganr but I think that’s pretty aggressive.

This is a league known for offense.
 

tglover13

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My point was that Duggan and Sanders are both more physically gifted than Casey Thompson. Idk about Skylar but I think KSU will be well-coached and formidable next season.

Duggan ran a 4.58 as a high school junior and from watching him run away from Big12 defenders on 50+ yard runs I'm confident he is probably a little bit (maybe not sub 4.5) faster than that now. TCU's offense has been disorganized the past two years for reasons in and outside of Duggans control

Al that being said, I full expect UT to have the second best offense in the conference next year because of Sark and the talent around whoever is QB next year. I also just like Duggan and Sanders athletic ability
Alright I can get behind that
 

chasek20

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1) Thompson
2) Card
3) Wright

Any list that doesn't have those 3 ranked 1-3 (in whatever order) can take that sh*t to an A&M board.

- I don't actually believe that.

The top 5-6 quarterbacks in this conference are all talented and all...fine. Maybe, good. Spencer Rattler is talented, but so was Jamarcus Russell. Talent doesn't make a great quarterback. Rattler turns the ball over too much, way too much to be the best qb in a Power Five conference. Spencer Sanders is careless with the football, as well. Duggan and TCU dominate Texas, but that's what TCU does. It's fun to watch Duggan run against non-Burnt Orange teams, but he's not a great (even good) passer. Skylar Thompson seems to have the ability to make a bad KSU team better.

Just going by the eye test and the same standards as last year (4 year starter, good team, CCG appearance, etc.), the best qb in the conference has to be Purdy. It feels odd to type that out, but he's the most efficient and I'm not even sure he's THAT efficient. As I type this, I keep seeing his backwards pass to TCU and think, "this guy is the best B12 qb..."

Thompson/Card are probably going to be good, but there is no way one half of a 2nd or 3rd tier bowl game makes me confident enough to rank the Texas qb room above the field.
 

stilesbbq

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1) Thompson
2) Card
3) Wright

Any list that doesn't have those 3 ranked 1-3 (in whatever order) can take that sh*t to an A&M board.

- I don't actually believe that.

The top 5-6 quarterbacks in this conference are all talented and all...fine. Maybe, good. Spencer Rattler is talented, but so was Jamarcus Russell. Talent doesn't make a great quarterback. Rattler turns the ball over too much, way too much to be the best qb in a Power Five conference. Spencer Sanders is careless with the football, as well. Duggan and TCU dominate Texas, but that's what TCU does. It's fun to watch Duggan run against non-Burnt Orange teams, but he's not a great (even good) passer. Skylar Thompson seems to have the ability to make a bad KSU team better.

Just going by the eye test and the same standards as last year (4 year starter, good team, CCG appearance, etc.), the best qb in the conference has to be Purdy. It feels odd to type that out, but he's the most efficient and I'm not even sure he's THAT efficient. As I type this, I keep seeing his backwards pass to TCU and think, "this guy is the best B12 qb..."

Thompson/Card are probably going to be good, but there is no way one half of a 2nd or 3rd tier bowl game makes me confident enough to rank the Texas qb room above the field.
I think everyone is putting first Rattler under the assumption that he takes a big leap after his freshman season and a full offseason with Riley. Then Purdy second because he is a senior and for all the reasons you mentioned
 
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sherf1

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1) Thompson
2) Card
3) Wright

Any list that doesn't have those 3 ranked 1-3 (in whatever order) can take that sh*t to an A&M board.

- I don't actually believe that.

The top 5-6 quarterbacks in this conference are all talented and all...fine. Maybe, good. Spencer Rattler is talented, but so was Jamarcus Russell. Talent doesn't make a great quarterback. Rattler turns the ball over too much, way too much to be the best qb in a Power Five conference. Spencer Sanders is careless with the football, as well. Duggan and TCU dominate Texas, but that's what TCU does. It's fun to watch Duggan run against non-Burnt Orange teams, but he's not a great (even good) passer. Skylar Thompson seems to have the ability to make a bad KSU team better.

Just going by the eye test and the same standards as last year (4 year starter, good team, CCG appearance, etc.), the best qb in the conference has to be Purdy. It feels odd to type that out, but he's the most efficient and I'm not even sure he's THAT efficient. As I type this, I keep seeing his backwards pass to TCU and think, "this guy is the best B12 qb..."

Thompson/Card are probably going to be good, but there is no way one half of a 2nd or 3rd tier bowl game makes me confident enough to rank the Texas qb room above the field.
This is where I'm at. Rattler is obviously most talented, we'll see how he develops.

From there on it's just tallest midget until someone rises up to take it. Iowa State averaged 32.9 ppg last year, it's all just....fine.
 

Ian Boyd

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This is where I'm at. Rattler is obviously most talented, we'll see how he develops.

From there on it's just tallest midget until someone rises up to take it. Iowa State averaged 32.9 ppg last year, it's all just....fine.
In 2018 Iowa State averaged 26.8 ppg, PFPurdy had 10.2 ypa.
Hakeem Butler had 60 catches for 1318 yards
In 2019 Iowa State averaged 32.2 ppg, PFPurdy had 8.4 ypa
Deshaunte Jones had 76 catches for 877 yards
in 2020 Iowa State averaged 32.9 ppg, PFPurdy had 7.5 ypa
Xavier Hutchinson had 64 catches for 771 yards

The WR talent is the crucial factor. If Hutchinson makes a leap and becomes more explosive than the offense will surge ahead. Look at how they've maintained progress on offense every year despite losing explosiveness every year in the passing game after losing Butler.
 
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