So, you want to trade Bitcoin

Shane3

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futures2015

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Another crazy crypto story.

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-prices-broaches-9000-on-crypto-exchange-wex-critics-cry-market-manipulation/

Bitcoin Prices Broaches $9,000 on Crypto Exchange WEX; Critics Cry Foul

Given the price discrepancy between WEX and other exchanges, many traders may be tempted to profit from this apparently-golden arbitrage opportunity. Nevertheless, several industry veterans have warned that if an arbitrage opportunity looks too good to be true, it probably is.
I'm currently waiting patiently for some "irrational exuberance" to give me my target profit.
 

Shane3

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Shane, I’m starting to think you are a bot.
I follow the crypto craziness because I think governments are drooling at the possibility of creating new money out of thin air. It would be a very helpful accounting trick to pay off our $20 trillion in debt, which I don’t believe can ever be paid off in any other way.
 

Shane3

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futures2015

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You’re gonna be rich! Let us know when you make that first billion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/07/18/marc-lasry-bitcoin-to-hit-40000-dollars-as-it-becomes-more-mainstream.html

Billionaire Marc Lasry sees bitcoin reaching up to $40,000 as it becomes more mainstream and easier to trade
Closed out of Bitcoin for a 12.27% profit (6 weeks).

Closed out of Litecoin for a 10% profit (in 1 day).

They've both since dropped and I'm waiting for their prices to hit my re-entry point.

I have it on good authority that 1 or more states will begin issuing their own crypto-bonds soon. (They are prohibited from issuing currency, but they can and will issue crypto-bonds).
 

Shane3

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Closed out of Bitcoin for a 12.27% profit (6 weeks).

Closed out of Litecoin for a 10% profit (in 1 day).

They've both since dropped and I'm waiting for their prices to hit my re-entry point.

I have it on good authority that 1 or more states will begin issuing their own crypto-bonds soon. (They are prohibited from issuing currency, but they can and will issue crypto-bonds).
Crypto bonds? Unless you’re joking, the financial world has gone mad!
 

futures2015

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Crypto bonds? Unless you’re joking, the financial world has gone mad!
Apparently, California has a law working its way through the legislature that would enable its cities to begin issuing said bonds.

They think it's a way to circumvent the Feds withholding funding due to their sanctuary city predilections.

Look for Cali-coin coming to a state near you.
 

Shane3

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I have good news, and bad news, for you! ;)

Good news. 7 month high for Bitcoin.

Bad news. That’s compared with the Turkish lira.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-hits-7-month-high-against-turkish-lira/

The resultant economic shock-wave has seen the lira drop to a new lifetime low of 7.20 TRY against the U.S. dollar today, after already having dropped 27 percent last week. On a year-to-date basis, the lira is down more than 80 percent against the greenback.

The crash in the lira looks very likely to be increasing bitcoin's proposition as a safe-haven asset in Turkey, and the price of the cryptocurrency shot up to 47,192 TRY earlier today – the highest level since January 21, according to Bitfinex data. At press time, the figure had dropped slightly to around 44,000 TRY.
 

ttaghorn

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Any one know of a billionaire willing to lend me a few million so I can invest in bitcoin? I will give him 70% of the profits, and 100% of the losses.
 

Shane3

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https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/09/12/crypto-s-crash-just-surpassed-dot-com-levels-as-losses-reach-80#gs.JS8sBs8

(Bloomberg) -- The Great Crypto Crash of 2018 looks more and more like one for the record books.

As virtual currencies plumbed new depths on Wednesday, the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 10 Index extended its collapse from a January high to 80 percent. The tumble has now surpassed the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 78 percent peak-to-trough decline after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
 

Shane3

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Significant drop, after weeks and weeks of relative stability.

1 Bitcoin equals
5,714.99 United States Dollar
 

poop_emoji

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My core positions: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, Zcash
My more speculative holdings: Stellar, 0x, Maker, Augur
 

Shane3

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Hard to ascribe price drop to any change in fundamental value drivers. Could be a good time to buy :)
There are no fundamental value drivers in a product with zero value. Or was that the point you were making?

Another drop.

1 Bitcoin equals
4,232.70 United States Dollar
 
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poop_emoji

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There are no fundamental value drivers in a product with zero value. Or was that the point you were making?

Another drop.

1 Bitcoin equals
4,232.70 United States Dollar
Haha nope not the point I'm making. Safe to say we disagree
 

DC Horn

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Yes. We disagree. It’s still falling.

3,974.80United States Dollar
Unsure where the floor will be, but getting closer and closer to $0.00 every day, $3,814 on financy.yahoo.com right now.

Related, Nvidia's most recent quarterly revenues and profit got hammered due to the drop in bitcoin/crypto mining. Their GPU's were the processors of choice, but the bursting bitcoin/crypto bubble has driven down demand.
 
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poop_emoji

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Major shifts in technology are always highly volatile and speculative during their installation phases (see Carlotta Perez framework for more context). In fact, there’s a good argument that bubbles are both necessary and productive for tech revolutions :)

Bitcoin is a <10 yr old technology and it is trying to replace/augment pillars of society (money, stores of value) that are as old as modern civilization itself. Like with all disruptive innovations the likely outcome is a dud but there are strong enough fundamentals here imo for a small chance at a profound shift (like PCs in the 80s and the internet in the 90s).
 

poop_emoji

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Related, Nvidia's most recent quarterly revenues and profit got hammered due to the drop in bitcoin/crypto mining. Their GPU's were the processors of choice, but the bursting bitcoin/crypto bubble has driven down demand.
Huang went as far as to project zero revenue contributions from the crypto market going forward. Cryptocurrencies that rely on GPUs were hit especially hard this year (they tend to be newer and more speculative).

GPUs haven’t been relevant for Bitcoin since ~2013. Mining Bitcoin requires custom chips produced by companies like BitMain.
 

DC Horn

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Interesting claim.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-close-to-becoming-worthless-2018-12-03

Opinion: Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless
By Atuyla Sarin
Published: Dec 3, 2018
Very interesting. I found the direct comparison to gold mining as fundamentally different, but the lack of a physical asset being a compelling position. More importantly was the mining cost relationship, which makes more fundamental sense.

If I were betting on Bitcoin, it would go and stay closer to $0.00 in the long term than ever achieve a price close to it's all-time high of $19,783.
 
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Shane3

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Very interesting. I found the direct comparison to gold mining as fundamentally different, but the lack of a physical asset being a compelling position. More importantly was the mining cost relationship, which makes more fundamental sense.

If I were betting on Bitcoin, it would go and stay closer to $0.00 in the long term than ever achieve a price close to it's all-time high of $19,783.
Pointing out the obvious.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ubs-executive-paul-donovan-blasts-bitcoin-again-states-cryptos-are-fatally-flawed

UBS Executive Paul Donovan Blasts Bitcoin Again, States Cryptos Are ‘Fatally Flawed’
 

DC Horn

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Shane3

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The article doesn't identify why Donovan states cryptos are fatally flawed. Do you know? Not doubting, just trying to understand. I've stayed at arm's length from the crypto currency market and now catching up.
Not sure but my guess it’s the same reason that Buffett says bitcoin is probably rat poison squared. It’s all hype with no way to value it.

http://fortune.com/2018/05/07/warren-buffett-bitcoin-rat-poison/

Warren Buffett on Saturday described the top cryptocurrency as “probably rat poison squared,” and on Monday he told CNBC that it’s “creating nothing.”

“When you’re buying non-productive assets, all you’re counting on is the next person is going to pay you more because they’re even more excited about another next person coming along,” the Berkshire Hathaway boss said.

Rewind a few months, and Buffett was declaring that cryptocurrencies in general “will come to a bad ending.” Go back several years further, and he was dubbing Bitcoin “a mirage,” arguing that “the idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke.”

Do cryptocurrency investors care what Warren Buffett has to say on the subject? The price is certainly down since his broadside, though as ever it is hard to say what has caused Bitcoin’s latest fluctuations.

On Saturday, Bitcoin looked like it could break through the $10,000 barrier for the first time in two months, but since then it has slumped to a current value of around $9,330.
 

poop_emoji

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2 comments:

(1) most hyperbolic criticisms of bitcoin come from people who don't understand how bitcoin works (e.g. that "Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless" article is flat wrong)
(2) if today's financial powers-that-be *didn't* think bitcoin/crypto was stupid, bitcoin/crypto would not have a chance to be truly disruptive. everything that ends up transformational starts out trivialized, sneered at, considered a toy, or labeled a scam.

to belabor point (2), i'll leave you with an "expert" opinion of the internet from 1995...

"After two decades online, I'm perplexed. It's not that I haven't had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I've met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I'm uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community. Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.

Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works."

https://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
 

Shane3

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2 comments:

(1) most hyperbolic criticisms of bitcoin come from people who don't understand how bitcoin works (e.g. that "Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless" article is flat wrong)
(2) if today's financial powers-that-be *didn't* think bitcoin/crypto was stupid, bitcoin/crypto would not have a chance to be truly disruptive. everything that ends up transformational starts out trivialized, sneered at, considered a toy, or labeled a scam.

to belabor point (2), i'll leave you with an "expert" opinion of the internet from 1995...

"After two decades online, I'm perplexed. It's not that I haven't had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I've met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I'm uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community. Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.

Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works."

https://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
How do you value bitcoin?
 

DC Horn

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2 comments:

(1) most hyperbolic criticisms of bitcoin come from people who don't understand how bitcoin works (e.g. that "Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless" article is flat wrong)
(2) if today's financial powers-that-be *didn't* think bitcoin/crypto was stupid, bitcoin/crypto would not have a chance to be truly disruptive. everything that ends up transformational starts out trivialized, sneered at, considered a toy, or labeled a scam.

to belabor point (2), i'll leave you with an "expert" opinion of the internet from 1995...

"After two decades online, I'm perplexed. It's not that I haven't had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I've met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I'm uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community. Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.

Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works."

https://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
Agree with expert opinion from 1995. Similary, IBM reportedly stated internally in the 1970's that the PC won't ever be a viable business. There are multiple cases where experts were largely inaccurate.

And there are many cases where experts stated absolutely something would happen, and it didn't.

There are technologies from crypto-currency (e.g., block chain) that will be useful and probably scale. For now, I don't foresee crypto-currency breaking out of the enthusiast market for a while, and even longer to replace any meaningful country's currency. Perhaps Venezuela with uncontrollable inflation. Or in a dystopian society.

For now lots of headwinds against it:
- Worse than a bubble stock from a stability investment standpoint
- High compute resources needed to make any significant money
- Lack of tangible value

Maybe we're all wrong and you'll be right. This is one I'll sit on the sidelines and be an observer.
 

poop_emoji

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How do you value bitcoin?
I value bitcoin using the same lens a venture capitalist would use to value an early-stage tech startup:
(1) what are the core value drivers and what are foreseeable inflection points if any? i think bitcoin's 2 primary value drivers today are: (a) belief in the narrative around BTC storing wealth and (b) net capital inflow into BTC. for (a) this has grown leaps and bounds over the past several years and i do not see why it won't continue. for (b) the largest pools of institutional capital have interest but no ability to allocate $ into BTC due to a lack of mature service providers and regulations. and the latter two are being addressed as i type.
(2) how big is the market? stores of value market sizes range from collectibles, to art, to real estate, all the way to M1. new technologies often have market expanding power (e.g. ride sharing market >>> taxi market) so i feel good that bitcoin has plenty of market to go after.
(3) what are the existential risks? existential risks include overt regulatory pressure, a breakdown in the game theory / incentives underlying the protocol, a complete unwinding of the belief narrative, and/or a competitive cryptocurrency overtaking BTC. regulation could get tougher but this is a global game now so i feel there will be equal/opposite treatments by enough nations. the longer we go without the blockchain being corrupted, the chance that it can be exponentially drops. belief + competitive risk are related but i think bitcoin's technology is sufficiently scalable/performant for it to fulfill its destiny.

i have little to say about day to day price volatility; it does not interest me. bitcoin is a set-and-forget ~5 yr bet for me. for any bet like this with asymmetric upside (you can only lose 1x your money but stand to make much more with low probability), make sure you bet size accordingly (i.e. small)

Agree with expert opinion from 1995. Similary, IBM reportedly stated internally in the 1970's that the PC won't ever be a viable business. There are multiple cases where experts were largely inaccurate.

And there are many cases where experts stated absolutely something would happen, and it didn't.

There are technologies from crypto-currency (e.g., block chain) that will be useful and probably scale. For now, I don't foresee crypto-currency breaking out of the enthusiast market for a while, and even longer to replace any meaningful country's currency. Perhaps Venezuela with uncontrollable inflation. Or in a dystopian society.

For now lots of headwinds against it:
- Worse than a bubble stock from a stability investment standpoint
- High compute resources needed to make any significant money
- Lack of tangible value

Maybe we're all wrong and you'll be right. This is one I'll sit on the sidelines and be an observer.
i am actually less bullish on blockchain technology without the monetary elements. said another way, without bitcoin blockchain isn't very interesting. agree with you on the enthusiast market, though i could see that market growing quite rapidly.

- agree volatility is high but should reduce over time
- bitcoin is secured by a proof of real-world opportunity cost. the more dollars spent in support of bitcoin, the better the protocol guarantees become. i would argue that the specialization at the infrastructure layer is a *bull* indicator
- disagree, see above :)
 

scout3dave

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I really don't understand the need for cryptos in a free society. You obviously see benefits in having a currency that isn't tied to a nation(s). To me the value only comes when trying to avoid regulatory or legal authorities - underground commercial transactions. Because this undermines the control features of "normal" currencies I can't see how it can resist heavy regulation in legal transactions. If it can't - what good is it?

I am looking for the utilitarian need.
 
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