So, you want to trade Bitcoin

Shane3

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I value bitcoin using the same lens a venture capitalist would use to value an early-stage tech startup:
(1) what are the core value drivers and what are foreseeable inflection points if any? i think bitcoin's 2 primary value drivers today are: (a) belief in the narrative around BTC storing wealth and (b) net capital inflow into BTC. for (a) this has grown leaps and bounds over the past several years and i do not see why it won't continue. for (b) the largest pools of institutional capital have interest but no ability to allocate $ into BTC due to a lack of mature service providers and regulations. and the latter two are being addressed as i type.
(2) how big is the market? stores of value market sizes range from collectibles, to art, to real estate, all the way to M1. new technologies often have market expanding power (e.g. ride sharing market >>> taxi market) so i feel good that bitcoin has plenty of market to go after.
(3) what are the existential risks? existential risks include overt regulatory pressure, a breakdown in the game theory / incentives underlying the protocol, a complete unwinding of the belief narrative, and/or a competitive cryptocurrency overtaking BTC. regulation could get tougher but this is a global game now so i feel there will be equal/opposite treatments by enough nations. the longer we go without the blockchain being corrupted, the chance that it can be exponentially drops. belief + competitive risk are related but i think bitcoin's technology is sufficiently scalable/performant for it to fulfill its destiny.

i have little to say about day to day price volatility; it does not interest me. bitcoin is a set-and-forget ~5 yr bet for me. for any bet like this with asymmetric upside (you can only lose 1x your money but stand to make much more with low probability), make sure you bet size accordingly (i.e. small)



i am actually less bullish on blockchain technology without the monetary elements. said another way, without bitcoin blockchain isn't very interesting. agree with you on the enthusiast market, though i could see that market growing quite rapidly.

- agree volatility is high but should reduce over time
- bitcoin is secured by a proof of real-world opportunity cost. the more dollars spent in support of bitcoin, the better the protocol guarantees become. i would argue that the specialization at the infrastructure layer is a *bull* indicator
- disagree, see above :)
I hope you didn’t buy in at $19K like some poor fools.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-will-likely-fall-to-1500-bloomberg-analyst/amp/

Bitcoin Price Will Likely Fall to $1,500: Bloomberg Analyst
 

poop_emoji

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I really don't understand the need for cryptos in a free society. You obviously see benefits in having a currency that isn't tied to a nation(s). To me the value only comes when trying to avoid regulatory or legal authorities - underground commercial transactions. Because this undermines the control features of "normal" currencies I can't see how it can resist heavy regulation in legal transactions. If it can't - what good is it?

I am looking for the utilitarian need.
i think we have a long way to go and a significant uphill battle for something like Bitcoin to replace a transactive currency used day to day to purchase goods/services.

what i think has a much more likely chance of working is Bitcoin as a reflexive store-of-value asset like art or gold. i sometimes jokingly refer to Bitcoin as "gold for millennials" and i think there's a lot of truth in that description.

there is some bitcoin adoption in countries with particularly bad monetary policy. if you are looking for the most straightforward utilitarian argument, this is it. but there isn't meaningful enough adoption in this vein for it to be considered a proven use case.
 
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poop_emoji

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I hope you didn’t buy in at $19K like some poor fools.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-will-likely-fall-to-1500-bloomberg-analyst/amp/

Bitcoin Price Will Likely Fall to $1,500: Bloomberg Analyst
lol luckily i didn't. though i would bet that even those who did buy at $19k, if they hold it, will see a profit.

also that article is ridiculously dumb for 2 reasons: (1) technical analysis = astrology and (2) the analyst is conflating bitcoin cash (a totally separate cryptocurrency) instability with bitcoin instability -- surprised bloomberg has such a junior varsity take
 
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poop_emoji

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You’re not interested in becoming a crypto billionaire like Futures? ;)
here's an interesting calculation i did: if bitcoin reaches a price of $250K, bitcoin billionaires will outnumber the rest of the billionaires. obviously we are quite a ways away from $250K (lol) but it has the potential to be one of the more meaningful wealth creation events in humanity's history
 

scout3dave

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i think we have a long way to go and a significant uphill battle for something like Bitcoin to replace a transactive currency used day to day to purchase goods/services.

what i think has a much more likely chance of working is Bitcoin as a reflexive store-of-value asset like art or gold. i sometimes jokingly refer to Bitcoin as "gold for millennials" and i think there's a lot of truth in that description.

there is some bitcoin adoption in countries with particularly bad monetary policy. if you are looking for the most straightforward utilitarian argument, this is it. but there isn't meaningful enough adoption in this vein for it to be considered a proven use case.
Thanks and I am not meaning to dump on the idea, I just don't see the intrinsic value in a currency not supported by big bombs. :)
 

Shane3

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i sometimes jokingly refer to Bitcoin as "gold for millennials" and i think there's a lot of truth in that description.

there is some bitcoin adoption in countries with particularly bad monetary policy. if you are looking for the most straightforward utilitarian argument, this is it. but there isn't meaningful enough adoption in this vein for it to be considered a proven use case.
Sure, if you like fool’s gold.
 
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poop_emoji

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Turns out btw the Dutch tulip bubble is likely fake news - it's magnitude dramatically embellished and over extrapolated

Some of those crazy dot com stocks like Amazon, google, and eBay turned out okay :)
 

calvin farquhar

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Turns out btw the Dutch tulip bubble is likely fake news - it's magnitude dramatically embellished and over extrapolated

Some of those crazy dot com stocks like Amazon, google, and eBay turned out okay :)
That's probably what poop_emoji XIV will be saying about bitcoin in 2418
 
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DC Horn

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Turns out btw the Dutch tulip bubble is likely fake news - it's magnitude dramatically embellished and over extrapolated

Some of those crazy dot com stocks like Amazon, google, and eBay turned out okay :)
Man, you're working really hard. Tulip bubble was real, possibly not to the exten of urban legend, but it was a bubble.

And for every Amazon, google, and eBay, there are 100's of other dot.bombs ... that's why it was called the dot bomb era.
 
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poop_emoji

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Man, you're working really hard. Tulip bubble was real, possibly not to the exten of urban legend, but it was a bubble.

And for every Amazon, google, and eBay, there are 100's of other dot.bombs ... that's why it was called the dot bomb era.
On tulips: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/

Fwiw I really don't care about tulips, just trying to dislodge the meme. there are tons of other speculative bubbles that could be substituted for tulips in an anti Bitcoin screed

Totally agree re: dot bomb. And the vast majority of cryptos (higher percentage than dot coms) are will fail. Such is the nature of productive bubbles
 

DC Horn

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On tulips: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/

Fwiw I really don't care about tulips, just trying to dislodge the meme. there are tons of other speculative bubbles that could be substituted for tulips in an anti Bitcoin screed

Totally agree re: dot bomb. And the vast majority of cryptos (higher percentage than dot coms) are will fail. Such is the nature of productive bubbles
Well, it's basically inconclusive, but ok.

"But the trade didn’t affect all levels of society, and it didn’t cause the collapse of industry in Amsterdam and elsewhere. As Garber, the economist, writes, “While the lack of data precludes a solid conclusion, the results of the study indicate that the bulb speculation was not obvious madness.”

I have no dog in the tulip fight either. It's probably not the large economic disaster that the urban myth has been the accepted norm, but there was a bubble.

Nevertheless, I'm on the bitcoin and crypto currency sideline. Good luck with your investments.
 

Shane3

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Haha the only thing gold has Bitcoin beat on is time. On all other dimensions Bitcoin is orders of magnitude better
Good luck with that.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/07/investing/bitcoin-prices-plunging/index.html

New York (CNN Business)What a difference a year makes for bitcoin.

In December 2017, bitcoin prices hit a record high of just under $20,000. Flash forward to December 2018 and bitcoin is now trading a little below $3,400. That's a more than 80% plunge. Bitcoin is at a 15-month low.
 

Jdhmills

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lolz at crypto’s, the technology is coming up way short in so many ways compared to what was promised.
 
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Shane3

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- bitcoin is secured by a proof of real-world opportunity cost. the more dollars spent in support of bitcoin, the better the protocol guarantees become. i would argue that the specialization at the infrastructure layer is a *bull* indicator
- disagree, see above :)
Your definition of secured is a little different than mine.
 

Shane3

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Bitcoin has gotta be one of the most annoying topics to come out the last few years
Prepare for even more annoyance. Buckle up!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/01/07/the-bitcoin-price-has-leaped-sharply-higher-heres-why/#7536f2393169

“Crypto derivatives could become an order of magnitude larger than spot markets and the main thing that’s holding back that growth is the lack of physical delivery,” Lamb said. “Volumes are reduced because of a problem of trust when it comes to cash-settled trades.”
 

Shane3

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padrehorn11

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Gold is at least pretty. And heavy.
St. Gaudens Double Eagles haven't been great investments overall since I started collecting them in 2013, but I collect them, I didn't buy them as investments or for speculation. I focused on my father's and mother's birth year and I can leave one each to my daughter, grandson, niece, nephew, and their children.
 
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Shane3

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Gold is at least pretty. And heavy.
St. Gaudens Double Eagles haven't been great investments overall since I started collecting them in 2013, but I collect them, I didn't buy them as investments or for speculation. I focused on my father's and mother's birth year and I can leave one each to my daughter, grandson, niece, nephew, and their children.
I expect gold prices will eventually increase, when our debt reaches the breaking point and people look for something more solid than bitcoin or paper money.
 

padrehorn11

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Turns out btw the Dutch tulip bubble is likely fake news - it's magnitude dramatically embellished and over extrapolated

Some of those crazy dot com stocks like Amazon, google, and eBay turned out okay :)
I have to admit Amazon has been 'berry, berry good to me". I still have good bit of Amazon stock (probably too much), but last year when it was riding high and I realized I had about as much value in Amazon stock as my house is worth, rather than sell some and pay 23.8 % in LTCG tax (including the Obamacare net investment tax), I donated close to $45,000 worth of LT appreciated Amazon stock to charity that originally cost me less than $19,000. Since I was blessed with a remarkable year thanks to oil shale overriding royalties (and I'm single), that $45,000 in charitable donations saved me almost $17,000 in income taxes. So for around a couple of grand I invested in late 2016- to early 2017, in 2018 I was able to help a lot of people--maybe even save some lives, or at the least make some lives much better, through some very efficient charities (which I checked out closely using charitynavigator.com). I much prefer deciding where I spend my some of my tax $'s than having the government seize it and make that decision for me.
 
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scout3dave

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I have to admit Amazon has been 'berry, berry good to me". I still have good bit of Amazon stock (probably too much), but last year when it was riding high and I realized I had about as much value in Amazon stock as my house is worth, rather than sell some and pay 23.8 % in LTCG tax (including the Obamacare net investment tax), I donated close to $45,000 worth of LT appreciated Amazon stock to charity that originally cost me less than $19,000. Since I was blessed with a remarkable year thanks to oil shale overriding royalties (and I'm single), that $45,000 in charitable donations saved me almost $17,000 in income taxes. So for around a couple of grand I invested in late 2016- to early 2017, in 2018 I was able to help a lot of people--maybe even save some lives, or at the least make some lives much better, through some very efficient charities (which I checked out closely using charitynavigator.com). I much prefer deciding where I spend my some of my tax $'s than having the government seize it and make that decision for me.
I was reading about qualified charitable deductions for those givers that are required to take RMD’s. Pretty good deal but I am 5 years away and who knows what the tax laws will be then.
 

futures2015

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Gold is at least pretty. And heavy.
St. Gaudens Double Eagles haven't been great investments overall since I started collecting them in 2013, but I collect them, I didn't buy them as investments or for speculation. I focused on my father's and mother's birth year and I can leave one each to my daughter, grandson, niece, nephew, and their children.
Great choice.

My preference is silver, particularly, Morgan silver dollars and silver proof sets.

Although, I'm a sucker for collecting complete sets -- pennies, nickels, dimes, whatever.
 
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TexasPalladin

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Great choice.

My preference is silver, particularly, Morgan silver dollars and silver proof sets.

Although, I'm a sucker for collecting complete sets -- pennies, nickels, dimes, whatever.
I collect Copper, Lead and Brass....various sizes ( 9mm, .45ACP, .44MAG, 5.56/223, .35 Rem, 12 ga., etc, etc) along with the tools they are mated too.
Does that count?
:)


Semper Fi
 

Shane3

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Missing millions? What a stupid idea to only have one guy with access.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-47123371


Canada's largest cryptocurrency exchange is unable to access millions in digital currency following the sudden death of its founder.

Quadriga has filed for creditor protection and estimates that about C$180m ($137m; £105m) in cryptocurrency coins is missing.

It has not been able to locate or secure its cryptocurrency reserves since Gerald Cotten died in December.

Cotten, 30, had sole responsibility for handling the funds and coins.

In court documents filed with the Nova Scotia Supreme Court on 31 January, his widow Jennifer Robertson, says the laptop on which Cotten "carried out the companies' business is encrypted and I do not know the password or recovery key".

"Despite repeated and diligent searches, I have not been able to find them written down anywhere," the affidavit states.

The company hired an investigator to see if any information could be retrieved but ongoing efforts have had only "limited success in recovering a few coins" and some information from Cotten's computer and phone.
 

futures2015

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Just sold my position in Dogecoin ... posted an annualized return of almost 9%.

Yep - made $2.23 of pure profit.
 
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Shane3

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Just sold my position in Dogecoin ... posted an annualized return of almost 9%.

Yep - made $2.23 of pure profit.
Bragging again? I noticed you didn’t mention your current profit, or loss, on Bitcoin. ;)