What really happened re: Iran?

padrehorn11

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People think it would be simple for the Israelis to stop Iran from getting a nuke.

The Iranians arent stupid. Their facilities will be well protected, and they will see them coming.

Not to mention that Iran could do some damage to Israel in return.

Some of y’all think the world is a video game where there is no price for war.
And some people seem to think that Iran is capable of preventing the U.S. from striking Iran a death blow. Would we lose some very expensive fighters or worse, American pilots? Yes. But could Iran actually stop us from destroying their capabilities? No. And then 'they got nothin'.

Neither side wants the challenge at this point, but there is zero question which side pays an unpleasant cost (even one U.S. fighter shot down by Iran is not something any sane American "wants") and which side gets hammered into oblivion. Iran does not want its entire air capability destroyed, which we can do if we choose to.
 
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JG

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If and when Iran has a nuclear weapon do you believe they will launch it against Israel?
No I don’t. There would be an
Immediate response from the Israelis that would leave five or six Iranian cities glowing embers, and a few million Iranians would be dead.

People act as if these are stupid people.
 

padrehorn11

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No I don’t. There would be an
Immediate response from the Israelis that would leave five or six Iranian cities glowing embers, and a few million Iranians would be dead.

People act as if these are stupid people.
I think you got that one basically right. The Iranians are not stupid people. The basic sanity of their current leadership might be questionnable though, I think. And therein lies the problem. Let's hope they keep taking their meds.
 

ole tnhorn

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No I don’t. There would be an
Immediate response from the Israelis that would leave five or six Iranian cities glowing embers, and a few million Iranians would be dead.

People act as if these are stupid people.
I don't think they're stupid but I do believe their leaders are religious zealots who are dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Wars have been started over much less. I think as soon as Iran believes they have enough firepower to eradicate Israel they'll attack.
 

padrehorn11

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I don't think they're stupid but I do believe their leaders are religious zealots who are dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Wars have been started over much less. I think as soon as Iran believes they have enough firepower to eradicate Israel they'll attack.
I'm not certain they're that crazy, but I'm not certain they aren't. Hell, Hitler started a two front war and Japan bombed Pearl Harbor. So I think you're right, you can never count on Nations always acting rationally when 'crazy' people are in charge.
 

TexasPalladin

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No I don’t. There would be an
Immediate response from the Israelis that would leave five or six Iranian cities glowing embers, and a few million Iranians would be dead.

People act as if these are stupid people.
If you knew half as much about Persians, Mullahs/Muslims and Tyrants as you do engineering and structural instability... you would realize just how wrong your position is John....And NO this is not a insult.
It has nothing to do with whether or not they are "Stupid" my friend.
It has to do with their culture, religion, mindset and philosophies.
There are more than a few Intel Professionals who have stated that they see themselves in a 3rd Crusade....And that they honestly believe they are destined to conquer the world.
I have spent enough time with them and have more than a few acquaintances from Iran who believe the same thing.
(A couple are Iranian Jews who escaped during the Shah' s reign and who's family became one of the major players in the gem market in NY and Belgium.. and one was a 6 time world champion in wrestling who escaped and gained asylum in Germany during the Iran/Iraq war....and these are just a few of the folks I have talked to at length over the years). These are among the many contacts I have made around the world in my travels...So I tend to listen to people who have actually been there and understand the area and people (Including the government).
If Iran were to ever gain nukes and the ability to deliver them efficiently?
Would be like handing a pack of matches and gasoline to a pyromaniac.
("Scorpion and the Fox" parable comes to mind here)


Semper Fi
 

mcb0703!

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I'm not certain they're that crazy, but I'm not certain they aren't. Hell, Hitler started a two front war and Japan bombed Pearl Harbor. So I think you're right, you can never count on Nations always acting rationally when 'crazy' people are in charge.
If you knew half as much about Persians, Mullahs/Muslims and Tyrants as you do engineering and structural instability... you would realize just how wrong your position is John....And NO this is not a insult.
It has nothing to do with whether or not they are "Stupid" my friend.
It has to do with their culture, religion, mindset and philosophies.
There are more than a few Intel Professionals who have stated that they see themselves in a 3rd Crusade....And that they honestly believe they are destined to conquer the world.
I have spent enough time with them and have more than a few acquaintances from Iran who believe the same thing.
(A couple are Iranian Jews who escaped during the Shah' s reign and who's family became one of the major players in the gem market in NY and Belgium.. and one was a 6 time world champion in wrestling who escaped and gained asylum in Germany during the Iran/Iraq war....and these are just a few of the folks I have talked to at length over the years). These are among the many contacts I have made around the world in my travels...So I tend to listen to people who have actually been there and understand the area and people (Including the government).
If Iran were to ever gain nukes and the ability to deliver them efficiently?
Would be like handing a pack of matches and gasoline to a pyromaniac.
("Scorpion and the Fox" parable comes to mind here)


Semper Fi
Evil genius is the best way to describe Iran, IMVHO...
 

calvin farquhar

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I find it odd, or maybe I don't, that the side that is/was convinced our President is loony, should not have access to the nuclear football, and is quite possibly going to start WW3, also believes the Iranian leadership isn't stupid therefore not going to start WW3.

****ing bizarro world.
 

JG

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If you knew half as much about Persians, Mullahs/Muslims and Tyrants as you do engineering and structural instability... you would realize just how wrong your position is John....And NO this is not a insult.
It has nothing to do with whether or not they are "Stupid" my friend.
It has to do with their culture, religion, mindset and philosophies.
There are more than a few Intel Professionals who have stated that they see themselves in a 3rd Crusade....And that they honestly believe they are destined to conquer the world.
I have spent enough time with them and have more than a few acquaintances from Iran who believe the same thing.
(A couple are Iranian Jews who escaped during the Shah' s reign and who's family became one of the major players in the gem market in NY and Belgium.. and one was a 6 time world champion in wrestling who escaped and gained asylum in Germany during the Iran/Iraq war....and these are just a few of the folks I have talked to at length over the years). These are among the many contacts I have made around the world in my travels...So I tend to listen to people who have actually been there and understand the area and people (Including the government).
If Iran were to ever gain nukes and the ability to deliver them efficiently?
Would be like handing a pack of matches and gasoline to a pyromaniac.
("Scorpion and the Fox" parable comes to mind here)


Semper Fi
Sorry Mike, have to disagree. They aren’t any crazier than the likes of Hitler or Pot or Kim.

You know what tyrannical rulers have in common? They like the power and they want to keep it. 72 virgins were fine for bin Laden’s guys...but he wanted the brass ring. He wasn’t dying in the effort. These guys don’t want to die. They like being in charge.

I’ve known lots of Iranians. They aren’t any crazier than other groups. It’s not Iran we have to worry about, it’s the fringe groups we do.

And guys like Kim selling them weapons. I worry a ton more about him than the Iranians.

The most certain thing there is is that if Iran attacks Israel there will be a bigger response. Khameni isn’t stupid, and he isn’t going to get himself knocked off.

You guys see a turban and a beard and think they are somehow different. They aren’t. Human nature is human.
 

JG

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Engineer and psychologist; you really do know everything about everything.
Human nature is human nature.

The idea that the Iranian leaders are somehow different from other leaders in human history is silly. Just as it's silly to think that Trump will drop the bomb on someone. He's not crazy either.
 

ole tnhorn

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They aren’t any crazier than the likes of Hitler or Pot or Kim.
Human nature is human nature.

The idea that the Iranian leaders are somehow different from other leaders in human history is silly.
And you know this how? You've known Iranians? If you have they almost certainly left Iran by choice and their beliefs didn't align with the country's leaders. You're spouting the same denials western Europe and the world were from 1933 until 1939. I can't say with assurance what they'll do but just like Hitler they have a written playbook for the world to see. Just like most rational people couldn't imagine what drove Hitler to commit genocide most rational people can't imagine a belief system that demands genocide.
They currently kill other muslims who don't aline with their interpretation of the koran.
As for relying on human nature explain the leaders you've listed along with serial killers, Jim Jones (religious zealot), David Koresh(religious zealot). All leaders aren't the same as you illuminated in listing Hitler, et al.
The record of Iran's behavior since 1979 is clear to anyone willing to look.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_state-sponsored_terrorism
Dismissing the potential of Iran starting a nuclear war based upon "human nature" is naive.
 

calvin farquhar

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And you know this how? You've known Iranians? If you have they almost certainly left Iran by choice and their beliefs didn't align with the country's leaders. You're spouting the same denials western Europe and the world were from 1933 until 1939. I can't say with assurance what they'll do but just like Hitler they have a written playbook for the world to see. Just like most rational people couldn't imagine what drove Hitler to commit genocide most rational people can't imagine a belief system that demands genocide.
They currently kill other muslims who don't aline with their interpretation of the koran.
As for relying on human nature explain the leaders you've listed along with serial killers, Jim Jones (religious zealot), David Koresh(religious zealot). All leaders aren't the same as you illuminated in listing Hitler, et al.
The record of Iran's behavior since 1979 is clear to anyone willing to look.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_state-sponsored_terrorism
Dismissing the potential of Iran starting a nuclear war based upon "human nature" is naive.
He also has a black friend, so he cant be racist.

In hindsight, it's easy to see Hitler was bat **** crazy, seething with hatred for Europe and the players in WW1. He had an absolute burning desire to exact revenge on those countries, feeling embarrassed and angry about how Germany was treated post WW1. They were dragged to the table to sign the Treaty of Versailles, forced to give up land, their military and pay reparations. The result was a spiraling economy and subsequent power struggle that he eventually won, post jail time, where he wrote Mein Kampf. Hell, there's a reason he went directly to the Sudetenlands once in power and took them back.

The point being, there were plenty of data points to cause concern, but, much like today with certain leaders, they were ignored or brushed off as unimportant. The best way to get what you want is with small incremental steps. That's why I don't trust dems when it comes to "common sense" gun control. Small incremental steps. Well, government in general, but dems in particular. They love their power and your freedom.
 
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JG

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And you know this how? You've known Iranians? If you have they almost certainly left Iran by choice and their beliefs didn't align with the country's leaders. You're spouting the same denials western Europe and the world were from 1933 until 1939. I can't say with assurance what they'll do but just like Hitler they have a written playbook for the world to see. Just like most rational people couldn't imagine what drove Hitler to commit genocide most rational people can't imagine a belief system that demands genocide.
They currently kill other muslims who don't aline with their interpretation of the koran.
As for relying on human nature explain the leaders you've listed along with serial killers, Jim Jones (religious zealot), David Koresh(religious zealot). All leaders aren't the same as you illuminated in listing Hitler, et al.
The record of Iran's behavior since 1979 is clear to anyone willing to look.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_state-sponsored_terrorism
Dismissing the potential of Iran starting a nuclear war based upon "human nature" is naive.
People don’t start wars hoping to die. They start them hoping to win. That includes the mullahs.

These guys aren’t Koresh or Jones. They already have power.

What they want the bomb for us to make impossible to take them out. They don’t want it to kill themselves.

And it’s a different world from Hitler. The bomb changed war forever.
 

UTGrad91

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People don’t start wars hoping to die. They start them hoping to win. That includes the mullahs.

These guys aren’t Koresh or Jones. They already have power.

What they want the bomb for us to make impossible to take them out. They don’t want it to kill themselves.

And it’s a different world from Hitler. The bomb changed war forever.
Once Again you don't understand the mullahs if you believe that:


"Iran’s ultimate goal, says Taheri, is to provoke a nuclear holocaust and pave the way for al-Mahdi, the “Hidden Imam” to re-establish Islam to its original, purest message, reveal the obscure secrets of the Holy Quran and make Iran’s Shi’ite brand of Islam the worldwide religion."
 

JG

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Once Again you don't understand the mullahs if you believe that:


"Iran’s ultimate goal, says Taheri, is to provoke a nuclear holocaust and pave the way for al-Mahdi, the “Hidden Imam” to re-establish Islam to its original, purest message, reveal the obscure secrets of the Holy Quran and make Iran’s Shi’ite brand of Islam the worldwide religion."
The idea that these guys are any madder than Kim is silly.

Do they want to make Shia Islam the worldwide religion? No doubt. Is getting blown to hell and having Iran in ruins a way to get that goal? No!

These aren’t stupid people.
 

UTGrad91

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The idea that these guys are any madder than Kim is silly.

Do they want to make Shia Islam the worldwide religion? No doubt. Is getting blown to hell and having Iran in ruins a way to get that goal? No!

These aren’t stupid people.
I get it. You're an atheist so you don't understand how religion can be a motivation. Not everybody's main concern is what happens in this life.

Why do you think suicide bombers gleefully take their own life so long as they take out some infidels with them? It's because they are convinced with absolute certainty that afterward they will be living in Paradise with 72 virgins at their beck and call.
 

calvin farquhar

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People don’t start wars hoping to die. They start them hoping to win. That includes the mullahs.

These guys aren’t Koresh or Jones. They already have power.

What they want the bomb for us to make impossible to take them out. They don’t want it to kill themselves.

And it’s a different world from Hitler. The bomb changed war forever.
They also understand when you start a war, people will die, and they could be one of them. The idea they wouldn't start a war because they don't want to die and don't think they will win is foolish. What's not different from Hitler is zealotry. Today's Mullahs have it and so did Hitler, and Stalin, and Mussolini.
 

calvin farquhar

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I get it. You're an atheist so you don't understand how religion can be a motivation. Not everybody's main concern is what happens in this life.

Why do you think suicide bombers gleefully take their own life so long as they take out some infidels with them? It's because they are convinced with absolute certainty that afterward they will be living in Paradise with 72 virgins at their beck and call.
He seems to have taken the dem position that they are all good guys and if we are just nice to them, they won't hate us, try to kill us, or want to impose their beliefs on us while creating the caliphate they believe is the ultimate goal.
 

ole tnhorn

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People don’t start wars hoping to die. They start them hoping to win. That includes the mullahs.

These guys aren’t Koresh or Jones. They already have power.

What they want the bomb for us to make impossible to take them out. They don’t want it to kill themselves.

And it’s a different world from Hitler. The bomb changed war forever.
The idea that these guys are any madder than Kim is silly.

Do they want to make Shia Islam the worldwide religion? No doubt. Is getting blown to hell and having Iran in ruins a way to get that goal? No!

These aren’t stupid people.
I realize this is just a message board but "WOW". Everything you've posted about Iran's possible use of a nuclear weapon is based on "human nature" excluding even the possibility that their leaders fall outside standard human behavior. You've commonly stated that you enjoy arguing and also that you aren't treated with respect. I believe I've never attacked you personally and will attempt to continue to do so but I will no longer engage you any any meaningful dialogue. Your responses are based upon your feelings and broad generalizations that suit your previously held political beliefs and at the very least are childish or disingenuous. You are remarkably close minded. There are some posters who would criticize anything you post because they are close minded right wingers. However more often than not you aren't attacked because you're liberal but because the quality of your responses insult the intelligence of this board.
 

ole tnhorn

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He seems to have taken the dem position that they are all good guys and if we are just nice to them, they won't hate us, try to kill us, or want to impose their beliefs on us while creating the caliphate they believe is the ultimate goal.
In addition I don't think he acknowledges the difference in behavior of the different muslim sects.
 

calvin farquhar

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In addition I don't think he acknowledges the difference in behavior of the different muslim sects.
Absolutely. I suspect the knowledge was gained via today's MSM and the dem talking point word document.

It's been a few years, but I recall a poll of Muslims asking questions along the lines of Sharia law, the caliphate, apostates, use of force etc.

Basically, what it showed, was that, although many are peace loving, living individuals, a significant majority believed in all of those things including force to achieve them. They personally weren't running around with bombs strapped to their chest and had no plans to do so. They were however, ok with the idea of others doing it to achieve the end goal.
 

JG

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I get it. You're an atheist so you don't understand how religion can be a motivation. Not everybody's main concern is what happens in this life.

Why do you think suicide bombers gleefully take their own life so long as they take out some infidels with them? It's because they are convinced with absolute certainty that afterward they will be living in Paradise with 72 virgins at their beck and call.
I’m not an atheist.

And there is a huge difference between suicide bombers and country leaders. You don’t get to be the Supreme Leader and then chuck that for glory hereafter. OBL wasn’t about to sacrifice himself for that, for example.
 

JG

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Iran ALREADY could deal a bunch of damage to Israel. They have the capacity to hurt them, and kill tens of thousands of Jews in the process. Why haven’t they?

Because the damage that comes back would be even greater.
 

UTGrad91

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I’m not an atheist.

And there is a huge difference between suicide bombers and country leaders. You don’t get to be the Supreme Leader and then chuck that for glory hereafter. OBL wasn’t about to sacrifice himself for that, for example.
You would if you're convinced that provoking nuclear conflict with the west would bring about your messiah and worldwide Islamic domination.
 
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JG

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You would if you're convinced that provoking nuclear conflict with the west would bring about your messiah and worldwide Islamic domination.
Maybe.

But how would that bring about worldwide Islamic domination? Again, these aren’t stupid people.
 

mcb0703!

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The idea that these guys are any madder than Kim is silly.

Do they want to make Shia Islam the worldwide religion? No doubt. Is getting blown to hell and having Iran in ruins a way to get that goal? No!

These aren’t stupid people.
I’m starting to feel sorry for your brain; it really wants to be used, you should consider actually using it at some point

The Iranians do not start wars wanting to die, but they are prepared to do so. It’s a part of their culture & who they are as a people & religion. It’s the greatest honor within Islam

& comparing the Mullahs to Kim is the equivalent of comparing the Yankees to a women’s slow pitch softball team. The Mullahs are prepared to die; Kim will take refuge in China...if wars with either country occurred (which they won’t). I’m surprised your Iranian friends haven’t told you this...
 

UTGrad91

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Maybe.

But how would that bring about worldwide Islamic domination? Again, these aren’t stupid people.
Once again, the belief is that provoking nuclear armageddon will cause the return of the 12th Imam (Mahdi) who will bring about worldwide Islamic rule.
 
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mcb0703!

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Iran ALREADY could deal a bunch of damage to Israel. They have the capacity to hurt them, and kill tens of thousands of Jews in the process. Why haven’t they?

Because the damage that comes back would be even greater.
Yes, Iran has dealt significant damage to Israel in multiple conflicts. Each time Israel’s had significant battles with Hamas, Hezbollah, or other groups in the region, its due to Iranian training, money, weapons, & soldiers

You not understanding this simple fact is unsurprising
 

jamesrh

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Maybe.

But how would that bring about worldwide Islamic domination? Again, these aren’t stupid people.
No but they are fervent religious believers and part of their beliefs are:
That a figure called “the Mahdi” or “Twelfth Imam” is the last of a dozen divine imams who are heirs to an Islamic nation. Their eschatology says the Mahdi was born in the mid-ninth century but then disappeared from humanity. He will only reappear during a time of global calamity. During an apocalyptic war, he will return to bring justice to the world—by raising the flag of Shiite Islam in every corner of the world.

Chaos is a prerequisite to their messianic figure’s return, and many Twelvers believe they can hasten his reappearance by intentionally stirring up chaos.

“In order to bring about this Islamic messiah,” said political strategist Joel Rosenberg, “the leaders actually believe they need to create bloody carnage, the death of millions of people in order to create the conditions for the Mahdi to bring peace.”

Among Iranians, Twelverism is not a fringe belief.

Between 90 and 95 percent of Iran’s 83 million people identify as Shiite Muslims, and 85 percent of those are Twelvers. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the patriarch of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, was a Twelver. The current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is as well.
 

eodhorn

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They also understand when you start a war, people will die, and they could be one of them. The idea they wouldn't start a war because they don't want to die and don't think they will win is foolish. What's not different from Hitler is zealotry. Today's Mullahs have it and so did Hitler, and Stalin, and Mussolini.
Maybe even more so. Remember the last 3 didn’t have religious zealot attached to their ideology. It can get to a whole other level when you think it’s your divine purpose to do so.
 

JG

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Hitler didn't start a war he didn't think he could win. He thought he could win it, and came damn close. Two critical errors: not finishing off Britain before attacking Russia, and being tied up with Japan and allowing us to come into the war against them.

But what he didn't do is a national suicide mission, which is what it would be for Iran if they dropped the bomb on Israel.
 

eodhorn

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Hitler didn't start a war he didn't think he could win. He thought he could win it, and came damn close. Two critical errors: not finishing off Britain before attacking Russia, and being tied up with Japan and allowing us to come into the war against them.

But what he didn't do is a national suicide mission, which is what it would be for Iran if they dropped the bomb on Israel.
You need to re-check your history. The very first German expansion under Hitler could have very easily been stopped. Germany climbed to its true power by taking small countries and using their treasure and resources to build the machine. At any early point in German hostilities France, England, etc could have easily have stopped them. But the threat wasn’t taken seriously, and they kept believing that Germany would stop until it was way too late. Hitler played the game of politics, and the fact that European Nations simply did not want war against them.
 

calvin farquhar

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You need to re-check your history. The very first German expansion under Hitler could have very easily been stopped. Germany climbed to its true power by taking small countries and using their treasure and resources to build the machine. At any early point in German hostilities France, England, etc could have easily have stopped them. But the threat wasn’t taken seriously, and they kept believing that Germany would stop until it was way too late. Hitler played the game of politics, and the fact that European Nations simply did not want war against them.

This is true, but I also don't think JGs comment is off base. Hitler did think he would win it and I happen to agree with the two errors Hitler made. He should have honored his peace agreement with Russia and he shouldn't have declared war on the U.S. Both were decisions with significant contribution toward their ultimate loss. Is there more to the story, obviously yes, but, this aint the History channel.

At the same time, I think that Hilter's belief of a New Order is in the same vein as a worldwide Caliphate. With that in mind, there is little difference in their zealotry (conviction) which is why, contrary to JGs continual statement they aren't stupid, I have no reason to believe they won't attempt it in some form. People should be paying very close attention. Maybe it takes another decade before they feel they are adequately prepared. Who knows. Hitler didn't come into power and go to war. He spent years building up the military and getting the people behind him until he was ready to pounce. Obama is our Neville Chamberlain.

EDIT: Maybe the Mullahs are more like Tojo and Hirohito in their fanaticism. The Japanese truly went to war with the idea to win and no concern about dying for the cause. Kamikaze anyone?
 
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calvin farquhar

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Maybe even more so. Remember the last 3 didn’t have religious zealot attached to their ideology. It can get to a whole other level when you think it’s your divine purpose to do so.
I think the beliefs of those 3, while not religious based, are their version of their religion.
 
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calvin farquhar

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Hitler didn't start a war he didn't think he could win. He thought he could win it, and came damn close. Two critical errors: not finishing off Britain before attacking Russia, and being tied up with Japan and allowing us to come into the war against them.

But what he didn't do is a national suicide mission, which is what it would be for Iran if they dropped the bomb on Israel.
By all accounts, Hitler committed suicide, as did several other leaders, so.
 

JG

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You need to re-check your history. The very first German expansion under Hitler could have very easily been stopped. Germany climbed to its true power by taking small countries and using their treasure and resources to build the machine. At any early point in German hostilities France, England, etc could have easily have stopped them. But the threat wasn’t taken seriously, and they kept believing that Germany would stop until it was way too late. Hitler played the game of politics, and the fact that European Nations simply did not want war against them.
They couldn’t “easily” have stopped him.

People need to remember and consider the times. They were less than 20 years from a war in which millions of their people died. A war to take out Hitler would have cost hundreds of thousands of lives. And no there would not have been guaranteed success. They fought the Germans for four years without beating them before.

Hitler didn’t start a war he thought he would lose. It never crossed his mind.
 

JG

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Oct 29, 2008
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By all accounts, Hitler committed suicide, as did several other leaders, so.
Yes he did. A decade later when he was defeated. But he wasn’t planning on that when he started. He was thinking a thousand years, not 12.
 

calvin farquhar

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Dec 19, 2017
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Yes he did. A decade later when he was defeated. But he wasn’t planning on that when he started. He was thinking a thousand years, not 12.
Congrats, you are now in the mind of the Mullahs, IMO.