There was a time when the great teams in college football were measured and discussed by referring to their running backs. The "three-Pete" Trojans had good receivers but everyone talked about Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Most people can probably more readily recall that Adrian Peterson was a star running back for the Oklahoma Sooners in the earlier part of Bob Stoops' run than name an offensive starter from their 2000 National Championship team. If they can, it's liable to be scat back Quentin Griffith.
Even up until recent years the famous National Champions were considered to be powered by runners. Vince Young, Tim Tebow, Mark Ingram, Cam Newton, Zeke Elliott, Trent Richardson, Derrick Henry, Deshaun Watson...up until Trevor Lawrence in 2018
The path to building a National Championship team was to have a big, powerful offensive line in order to feature a bell cow running back that could dominate games.
The 2018 Clemson Tigers appeared to be that, on the surface. Their season was stabilized by a Travis Etienne season with 204 carries for 1658 yards at 8.1 ypc with 24 rushing touchdowns. Going into the playoffs, you'd assume that was the driving force of their run.
But against Notre Dame and Alabama Etienne had only 28 total carries while the Tigers won both games by blowout (30-3, 44-16). How'd they do it? By distributing the ball to a pair of stud wideouts in Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins. Ross caught 12 balls for 301 yards and three scores, Higgins chipped in another seven catches for 134 more yards and two more touchdowns. That's what killed the Irish and Tide in those playoffs, they just couldn't cover those guys.
In 2019 it was LSU following that formula to glory and the receivers were Justin Jefferson and J'Marr Chase. In 2020? We don't know yet but that Alabama vs Georgia game gave us good reason to believe the Tide may have unlocked the formula with Devonta Smith and Jaylen Wadde.
Through just four games Waddle has 25 catches for 557 yards and four touchdowns. Smith has another 38 catches for 483 yards and four more touchdowns. Running back Najee Harris is great, but there's not even any point in worrying about him when those two are dominating like this. You aren't going to beat Alabama if those two are combining for 260 yards and two touchdowns per game.
The mark of a championship team these days is generally whether or not you have two dominant wide receivers. Obviously, just as it was shallow when people would summarize an offense with the play of the running back, there's more to it than that. But the mark of an elite team is now the receiving corps and whether they have future NFL stars in at least two spots on the perimeter.
Why two?
The 4-down, RPO math problem
This is the 4-down, RPO math problem:
It's that you can't outnumber the receivers to both sides of the formation AND get a plus one in the run game if you use four down linemen. On third down in an obvious passing situation the defense could play a deep safety over both of the more dangerous receivers, but if they need to bring pressure with a fifth defender to get heat on the quarterback then things get dicey again.
They also have to have answers for spread formations designed to generate 1-on-1s for their best deep threats, often times they don't. And the smart offensive teams that have a pair of deadly wide receivers generally don't wait for third-and-long to take a shot to their stars. They set those up on early downs when you are still worried about defending the run game.
Space force gap
The teams that want to contend in the playoffs need to be recruiting and developing their teams to feature NFL talent at the space force positions of left tackle and wide receiver.
Check out the Georgia vs Alabama battle.
The two big differences here are the gap at quarterback, where Mac Jones was clearly more dangerous than Stetson Bennett, and then the experience level of the wide receivers. Last year Smith and Waddle were important components in a deadly Alabama passing attack while Jackson and Pickens were smaller parts in a run-centric offense with a different coordinator. Similarly, Leatherwood is a multi-year vet and Jamaree Salyer started his first game last season at right tackle against Murray State and his second in the Sugar Bowl at the same position.
Go watch some of the double moves Alabama is running at receiver and take note that it takes good protection along the line to make that possible unless you have Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback.
Georgia is really a year away. Next season they'll probably return all four of the players listed above and perhaps have J.T. Daniels at quarterback rather than Bennett. Obviously LSU has folded here after losing virtually everyone and most of the rest of the SEC isn't building their teams to win in this fashion. Florida is your next best bet, but they are having defensive issues that Texas A&M was good enough to help point out for them.
Then you have the other two national heavyweights.
On the Clemson side they may not have the same kind of overpowering outside talent as in years past after losing Justyn Ross to injury. We'll have to see what Rodgers and Ladson can get up to over the course of the season, and then they also have tight end Braden Galloway who's a potential X-factor in the playoffs.
Ohio State is pretty super-charged if Wilson can make a leap as a second year player (likely) and Olave can continue his existing trajectory. There's also a leap to be made for quarterback Justin Fields in distributing the ball. Last year they kept things fairly simple with a punishing run game that allowed Fields to take clear, arm-intensive shots outside. If he's grown significantly as a dropback passer that's a game changer.
With the additions of Wilson and fellow Texan Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State has been building their future teams with the understanding of the new reality in college football. Clemson was at the forefront in creating this new reality in college football. Obviously Alabama has been catching up more and more every year on offense, even as their defense has struggled to keep up. Oklahoma is already designed with these same assumptions, they're just in a rebuilding year.
Flyover football is now mainstream at the major universities...except Texas.
Even up until recent years the famous National Champions were considered to be powered by runners. Vince Young, Tim Tebow, Mark Ingram, Cam Newton, Zeke Elliott, Trent Richardson, Derrick Henry, Deshaun Watson...up until Trevor Lawrence in 2018
The path to building a National Championship team was to have a big, powerful offensive line in order to feature a bell cow running back that could dominate games.
The 2018 Clemson Tigers appeared to be that, on the surface. Their season was stabilized by a Travis Etienne season with 204 carries for 1658 yards at 8.1 ypc with 24 rushing touchdowns. Going into the playoffs, you'd assume that was the driving force of their run.
But against Notre Dame and Alabama Etienne had only 28 total carries while the Tigers won both games by blowout (30-3, 44-16). How'd they do it? By distributing the ball to a pair of stud wideouts in Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins. Ross caught 12 balls for 301 yards and three scores, Higgins chipped in another seven catches for 134 more yards and two more touchdowns. That's what killed the Irish and Tide in those playoffs, they just couldn't cover those guys.
In 2019 it was LSU following that formula to glory and the receivers were Justin Jefferson and J'Marr Chase. In 2020? We don't know yet but that Alabama vs Georgia game gave us good reason to believe the Tide may have unlocked the formula with Devonta Smith and Jaylen Wadde.
Through just four games Waddle has 25 catches for 557 yards and four touchdowns. Smith has another 38 catches for 483 yards and four more touchdowns. Running back Najee Harris is great, but there's not even any point in worrying about him when those two are dominating like this. You aren't going to beat Alabama if those two are combining for 260 yards and two touchdowns per game.
The mark of a championship team these days is generally whether or not you have two dominant wide receivers. Obviously, just as it was shallow when people would summarize an offense with the play of the running back, there's more to it than that. But the mark of an elite team is now the receiving corps and whether they have future NFL stars in at least two spots on the perimeter.
Why two?
The 4-down, RPO math problem
This is the 4-down, RPO math problem:
It's that you can't outnumber the receivers to both sides of the formation AND get a plus one in the run game if you use four down linemen. On third down in an obvious passing situation the defense could play a deep safety over both of the more dangerous receivers, but if they need to bring pressure with a fifth defender to get heat on the quarterback then things get dicey again.
They also have to have answers for spread formations designed to generate 1-on-1s for their best deep threats, often times they don't. And the smart offensive teams that have a pair of deadly wide receivers generally don't wait for third-and-long to take a shot to their stars. They set those up on early downs when you are still worried about defending the run game.
Space force gap
The teams that want to contend in the playoffs need to be recruiting and developing their teams to feature NFL talent at the space force positions of left tackle and wide receiver.
Check out the Georgia vs Alabama battle.
The two big differences here are the gap at quarterback, where Mac Jones was clearly more dangerous than Stetson Bennett, and then the experience level of the wide receivers. Last year Smith and Waddle were important components in a deadly Alabama passing attack while Jackson and Pickens were smaller parts in a run-centric offense with a different coordinator. Similarly, Leatherwood is a multi-year vet and Jamaree Salyer started his first game last season at right tackle against Murray State and his second in the Sugar Bowl at the same position.
Go watch some of the double moves Alabama is running at receiver and take note that it takes good protection along the line to make that possible unless you have Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback.
Georgia is really a year away. Next season they'll probably return all four of the players listed above and perhaps have J.T. Daniels at quarterback rather than Bennett. Obviously LSU has folded here after losing virtually everyone and most of the rest of the SEC isn't building their teams to win in this fashion. Florida is your next best bet, but they are having defensive issues that Texas A&M was good enough to help point out for them.
Then you have the other two national heavyweights.
On the Clemson side they may not have the same kind of overpowering outside talent as in years past after losing Justyn Ross to injury. We'll have to see what Rodgers and Ladson can get up to over the course of the season, and then they also have tight end Braden Galloway who's a potential X-factor in the playoffs.
Ohio State is pretty super-charged if Wilson can make a leap as a second year player (likely) and Olave can continue his existing trajectory. There's also a leap to be made for quarterback Justin Fields in distributing the ball. Last year they kept things fairly simple with a punishing run game that allowed Fields to take clear, arm-intensive shots outside. If he's grown significantly as a dropback passer that's a game changer.
With the additions of Wilson and fellow Texan Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State has been building their future teams with the understanding of the new reality in college football. Clemson was at the forefront in creating this new reality in college football. Obviously Alabama has been catching up more and more every year on offense, even as their defense has struggled to keep up. Oklahoma is already designed with these same assumptions, they're just in a rebuilding year.
Flyover football is now mainstream at the major universities...except Texas.
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